Population projections tables

National population projections | Subnational population projections | Area unit population projections | National ethnic population projections

National population projections

2009-base to 2061

The latest national population projections have as a base the estimated resident population (provisional) of New Zealand at 30 June 2009, and cover the period to 2061 at one-year intervals. These supersede the 2006-base national population projections.

Nine alternative series have been produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. At the time of release, projection series 5 is considered the most suitable for assessing future population changes. Series 5 assumes:

• Fertility: the total fertility rate will decrease to 1.9 births per woman by 2026 and then remain constant.
• Mortality: life expectancy at birth will increase to 85.6 years for males and 88.7 years for females by 2061.
• Migration: a long-run annual net migration gain of 10,000 people from 2013.

The other projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from changes in the assumptions for each of the components of population change. Series 4, 5 and 6 can be used for assessing the effect of the different migration assumptions; series 3, 5 and 7 allow for a comparative mortality analysis; and series 2, 5 and 8 allow for a comparative fertility analysis.

Series 1 and 9 give the lowest and highest projected population, respectively, based on the adopted assumptions. Series 1 uses low fertility, high mortality and low net migration. Series 9 uses high fertility, low mortality and high net migration.

National population projections, 2009-base tables

Projected Population of New Zealand, by Age and Sex, 2009 (base) - 2061

Projected Population Characteristics, 2009 (base) - 2061

2006-base to 2061

These national population projections have as a base the estimated resident population of New Zealand at 30 June 2006, and cover the period to 2061 at one-year intervals. They have been superseded by the 2009-base national population projections (see above), but will appear here until all 2006-base projections (eg subnational, ethnic population, family and household, labour force) have been updated.

Nine alternative series have been produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. At the time of release, projection series 5 is considered the most suitable for assessing future population changes. Series 5 assumes:

• Fertility: the total fertility rate will decrease to 1.9 births per woman by 2026 and then remain constant.
• Mortality: life expectancy at birth will increase to 84.5 years for males and 88.0 years for females by 2061.
• Migration: a long-run annual net migration gain of 10,000 people from 2010.

The other projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from changes in the assumptions for each of the components of population change. Series 4, 5 and 6 can be used to assess the effect of the different migration assumptions; series 3, 5 and 7 allow for comparative mortality analysis; and series 2, 5 and 8 allow for comparative fertility analysis.

Series 1 and 9 give the lowest and highest projected populations, respectively, based on the adopted assumptions. Series 1 uses low fertility, high mortality and low net migration. Series 9 uses high fertility, low mortality and high net migration.

National population projections, 2006-base tables

Projected Population of New Zealand, by Age and Sex, 2006 (base) - 2061

Projected Population Characteristics, 2006 (base) - 2061

Additional information

More information about the projections, including projection assumptions, is available in the National Population Projections Information Releases and Information about the Demographic Projections.

Subnational population projections

2006-base to 2031 update

The updated 2006-base subnational population projections have as a base the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals. These supersede the original 2006-base subnational population projections.

Three alternative series (designated low, medium and high) have been produced for each area using different fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. At the time of release, the medium projection series is considered the most suitable for assessing future population change and is consistent with series 5 of the 2009-base National Population Projections released on 27 October 2009.

The low and high projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of any series of the National Population Projections as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area rather than at the collective national level. The low projection series uses low fertility, high mortality and low net migration for each area. The high projection series uses high fertility, low mortality and high net migration for each area.

Subnational population projections tables, 2006(base)-2031 update 

Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006 (base) - 2031 Update

Subnational Projected Population Characteristics, 2006 (base) - 2031 Update 

2006-base to 2031

These subnational population projections have as a base the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals. They have been superseded by the Subnational Population Projections 2006(base) – 2031 Update (see above), but will appear here until all 2006-base projections (eg subnational, ethnic population, family and household, labour force) have been updated.

Three alternative series (designated low, medium and high) have been produced for each area using different fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. At the time of release, the medium projection series is considered the most suitable for assessing future population change and is consistent with series 5 of the 2006-base National Population Projections released on 24 October 2007.

The low and high projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of any series of the National Population Projections as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area rather than at the collective national level. The low projection series uses low fertility, high mortality and low net migration for each area. The high projection series uses high fertility, low mortality and high net migration for each area.

Subnational population projections tables, 2006(base)-2031 

Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006 (base) - 2031

Subnational Projected Population Characteristics, 2006 (base) - 2031

Information about rounding

Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.

The rounding of population figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules that have been applied are outlined below.

For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.

Additional information

More information about the projections, including projection assumptions, is available in the Subnational Population Projections Information Releases and Information about the Demographic Projections.

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Area unit population projections

2006-base to 2031 update

The updated 2006-base area unit population projections, including projections by five-year age group and sex, will be available in 2010 from Table Builder. These supersede the original 2006-base area unit population projections.

The updated 2006-base area unit population projections have the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006 as a base, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals.

Three alternative series (designated low, medium, and high) have been produced for each area unit using different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. Users can make their own judgement as to which projection series is/are most suitable for their purposes. However, at the time of release, Statistics New Zealand considers the medium series the most suitable for assessing future population changes. The medium series is consistent with mid-range series 5 of the National Population Projections: 2009(base)–2061 (released on 27 October 2009) and the medium series of the Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 update (released on 24 February 2010).

The low and high projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of any series of the national population projections or subnational population projections (regions, cities, and districts) as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area unit. As a result, low and high population projections at the area unit level do not necessarily sum to low and high population projections at broader geographic levels. The low projection series uses low fertility, high mortality, and low net migration for each area unit. The high projection series uses high fertility, low mortality, and high net migration for each area unit.

Area unit population projections tables

Area Unit Population Projections by Territorial Authorities, Age and Sex, 2006(base)–2031 update

Area Unit Projected Population Characteristics by Territorial Authorities, 2006(base)–2031 update

2006-base to 2031

The 2006-base area unit population projections, including projections by five-year age group and sex, are available from Table Builder as part of the Making More Information Freely Available (MIFA) initiative. They are in the process of being superseded by the Area Unit Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 update (see above), but will appear here until all 2006-base projections (eg subnational, ethnic population, family and household, labour force) have been updated.

The area unit population projections have the estimated resident population of each area at 30 June 2006 as a base, and cover the period to 2031 at five-year intervals.

Three alternative series (designated low, medium, and high) have been produced for each area unit using different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. Users can make their own judgement as to which projection series is/are most suitable for their purposes. However, at the time of release, Statistics NZ considers the medium series is the most suitable for assessing future population change. The medium series is consistent with series 5 of the 2006-base National Population Projections released on 24 October 2007 and the medium series of the 2006-base Subnational Population Projections (regions, cities and districts) released on 3 December 2007.

The low and high projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from more conservative and optimistic demographic scenarios, respectively. They are independent of any series of the national population projections or subnational population projections (regions, cities, and districts) as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each area unit. As a result, low and high population projections at the area unit level do not necessarily sum to low and high population projections at broader geographic levels. The low projection series uses low fertility, high mortality, and low net migration for each area unit. The high projection series uses high fertility, low mortality, and high net migration for each area unit.

Area unit population projections tables

These tables are in the process of being superseded by the Area Unit Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 update (see above).

Area Unit Population Projections by Territorial Authorities, Age and Sex, 2006 (base) – 2031

Area Unit Projected Population Characteristics by Territorial Authorities, 2006 (base) – 2031

Information about rounding

Within the tables, individual figures may not sum to stated totals due to rounding.

The rounding of population figures is determined by the total population size of the geographic area. The rounding rules that have been applied are outlined below.

For example, if a geographic area has a population of 15,000 then five-year age group cells will be rounded to the nearest 10, and broad age group and total (all ages) cells will be rounded to the nearest 50.

Additional information

More information about the projections is available in Area unit population projections and Information about the Demographic Projections.

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National ethnic population projections

2006-base to 2026 update

The updated national ethnic population projections have been produced for four broad ethnic populations of New Zealand: 'European or Other (including New Zealander)', Māori, Asian and Pacific. The new projections have the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2006 as a base, and cover the period to 2026 at one-year intervals. These supersede the 2006-base national ethnic population projections released in April 2008.

It is important to note that the ethnic populations discussed here are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population that they identify with.

These ethnic population projections complement the projections of the New Zealand population (National Population Projections, 2009 (base)–2061), released on 27 October 2009. However, only series 6 of the respective ethnic population projections and series 5 of the national population projections are designed to be directly comparable. Other series cannot be directly compared because the projection assumptions may be incompatible.

For each ethnic group, eleven alternative series have been produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. At the time of release (April 2010), projection series 6 is considered the most suitable for assessing future population changes.

Series 6 of the respective ethnic population projections assumes:

• Fertility: By 2026, the total fertility rate will be 1.85 births per woman for European or Other women, 2.50 for Māori women, 1.50 for Asian women, and 2.65 for Pacific women, while the total paternity rate will be 0.165 births per man for European or Other men (with non-European and non-Other women), 0.95 for Māori men (with non-Māori women), 0.23 for Asian men (with non-Asian women), and 1.00 for Pacific men (with non-Pacific women).
• Mortality: Life expectancy at birth will increase for the European or Other population to 82.2 years for males and 85.4 years for females by 2026, for the Māori population to 75.4 years for males and 79.2 years for females, for the Asian population to 86.6 years for males and 89.7 years for females, and for the Pacific population to 77.0 years for males and 80.4 years for females.
• Migration: There will be long-run annual net migration levels of -3,000 for the European or Other population (from 2013), -3,000 for the Māori population (from 2012), 12,000 for the Asian population (from 2010), and 500 for the Pacific population (from 2008).
• Inter-ethnic mobility: There will be a net change to the population due to people changing their ethnic identification of zero percent a year for the European or Other population, -0.3 percent for the Māori population, -0.2 percent for the Asian population, and -0.2 percent for the Pacific population.

The other projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from changes in the assumptions for each of the components of population change. Series 2, 6 and 10 can be used for assessing the effect of the different fertility assumptions; series 3, 6 and 9 allow for a comparative mortality analysis; series 4, 6 and 8 allow for alternative migration levels; and series 5, 6 and 7 allow for different inter-ethnic mobility rates. Series 1 and 11 give the lowest and highest projected population, respectively, based on the adopted assumptions.

Series 1 uses low fertility, high mortality, low migration and high inter-ethnic mobility. Series 11 uses high fertility, low mortality, high migration and low inter-ethnic mobility.

National ethnic population projections tables, 2006(base)-2026 update 

Projected Ethnic Populations of New Zealand, by Sex and Age, 2006 (base)–2026 update 

Projected Ethnic Population Characteristics, 2006 (base)–2026 update 

2006-base to 2026

These National Ethnic Population Projections have been produced for four broad ethnic populations of New Zealand: 'European or Other (including New Zealander)', Māori, Asian and Pacific. The new projections have the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2006 as a base, and cover the period to 2026 at one-year intervals. They have been superseded by the national ethnic population projections 2006(base)–2026 update (see above), but will appear here until other 2006-base projections (eg subnational, ethnic population, family and household, labour force) have been updated.

It is important to note that the ethnic populations discussed here are not mutually exclusive because people can, and do, identify with more than one ethnicity.

People who identify with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population that they identify with.

These ethnic population projections complement the projections of the New Zealand population (National Population Projections, 2006 (base) – 2061), released on 24 October 2007. However, only series 6 of the respective ethnic population projections and series 5 of the national population projections are designed to be directly comparable. Other series cannot be directly compared because the projection assumptions may be incompatible.

For each ethnic group, 11 alternative series have been produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. At the time of release (April 2008), projection series 6 is considered the most suitable for assessing future population changes.

Series 6 of the respective ethnic population projections assumes:

• Fertility: By 2026, the total fertility rate will be 1.75 births per woman for 'European or Other' women, 2.50 for Māori women, 1.55 for Asian women, and 2.60 for Pacific women. While the total paternity rate will be 0.14 births per man for 'European or Other' men (with non-European and non-Other women), 0.95 for Māori men (with non-Māori women), 0.22 for Asian men (with non-Asian women), and 1.05 for Pacific men (with non-Pacific woman).
• Mortality: Life expectancy at birth will increase for the 'European or Other' population to 82.6 years for males and 86.2 years for females by 2026, for the Māori population to 76.5 years for males and 80.6 years for females, for the Asian population to 85.4 years for males and 88.8 years for females, and for the Pacific population to 78.4 years for males and 82.3 years for females.
• Migration: There will be long-run annual net migration levels of -3,000 for the 'European or Other' population (from 2010), -3,000 for the Māori population (from 2010), 12,000 for the Asian population (from 2010), and 500 for the Pacific population (from 2008).
• Inter-ethnic mobility: There will be a net change to the population due to people changing their ethnic identification of zero percent a year for the 'European or Other' population, -0.3 percent for the Māori population, -0.2 percent for the Asian population, and -0.2 percent for the Pacific population.

The other projection series allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure resulting from changes in the assumptions for each of the components of population change. Series 2, 6 and 10 can be used for assessing the effect of the different fertility assumptions; series 3, 6 and 9 allow for a comparative mortality analysis; series 4, 6 and 8 allow for alternative migration levels; and series 5, 6 and 7 allow for different inter-ethnic mobility rates.

Series 1 and 11 give the lowest and highest projected population, respectively, based on the adopted assumptions. Series 1 uses low fertility, high mortality, low migration and high inter-ethnic mobility. Series 11 uses high fertility, low mortality, high migration and low inter-ethnic mobility.

National ethnic population projections tables, 2006(base)-2026 

Projected Ethnic Populations of New Zealand, by Sex and Age, 2006 (base) - 2026

Projected Ethnic Population Characteristics, 2006 (base) - 2026

Additional information

More information about the projections, including projection assumptions, is available in the National Ethnic Population Projections Information Releases and Information about the Demographic Projections.

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