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Estimates and projections

Statistics about the size, composition, and geographic distribution of New Zealand’s population. Find:

Estimates – latest statistics

National population estimates – tables (next release 14 November 2016)
Quarterly table updates in Infoshare – subject category: Population; group: Population estimates.

National population estimates – information releases (next release August 2017)
Annual information releases for New Zealand population by age and sex.

Subnational population estimates – tables (next release 17 November 2016)
Table updates in NZ.Stat and Infoshare for regional council and territorial authority areas; area units and other local areas; and broad ethnic groups in census years.

Subnational population estimates – information releases (next release October 2017)
Annual information releases for regional council and territorial authority area population estimates (provisional) by age and sex.

Dwelling and household estimates – tables (next release 10 January 2017)
National dwelling and household estimates from 1991 by tenure.

Māori population estimates – tables (next release 15 November 2016)
Estimates of the Māori ethnic population of New Zealand by age and sex.

Historical population estimates – tables (next release 14 November 2016)
Other national population estimates, including estimates by sex from 1926.

Projections – latest statistics

National population projections (next release late 2019)
Information release for New Zealand population  projections by age and sex.

National population projections – tables (next release late 2019)
New Zealand population projections by age and sex in NZ.Stat.

Subnational population projections (next release 22 February 2017)
Information release for regional council, territorial authority and Auckland local board area population projections by age and sex. 

Subnational population projections – tables (next release 14 December 2016 (TAs) and 22 February 2017 (regions, ALBAs))
Regional council, territorial authority, and Auckland local board area population projections by age and sex in NZ.Stat.

Area unit population projections – tables (next release 2017)
Area unit ('suburb') population projections by age and sex in NZ.Stat.

National ethnic population projections (next release 18 May 2017)
Information release for New Zealand Māori, Pacific, Asian, and 'European or Other' ethnic population projections by age and sex.

National ethnic population projections – tables (next release 18 May 2017)
New Zealand Māori, Pacific, Asian, and 'European or Other' ethnic population projections by age and sex in NZ.Stat.

Subnational ethnic population projections (next release 2017)
Information release for regional council, territorial authority, and Auckland local board area Māori, Pacific, Asian, and 'European or Other' ethnic population projections by age and sex.

Subnational ethnic population projections – tables (next release 2017)
Regional council, territorial authority and Auckland local board area Māori, Pacific, Asian, and 'European or Other' ethnic population projections by age and sex in NZ.Stat.

National labour force projections (next release 2017)
Information release for New Zealand labour force projections by age and sex.

National labour force projections – tables (next release 2017)
New Zealand labour force projections by age and sex in NZ.Stat.

National family and household projections (next release 2017)
Information release for New Zealand family and household projections by broad family type and household type.

National family and household projections – tables (next release 2017)
New Zealand family and household projections by broad family type and household type, and population by living arrangement type, age, and sex in NZ.Stat.

Subnational family and household projections (next release 2017)
Information release for regional council and territorial authority area family and household projections by broad family type and household type.

Subnational family and household projections – tables (next release 2017)
Regional council, territorial authority, and Auckland local board area family and household projections by broad family type and household type, and population by living arrangement type and age in NZ.Stat.

Related statistics

NEW – 'Estimated resident population' map
Statsmap – The distribution of people at 30 June 2001, 2006, and 2013, plus proportions in different broad age and ethnic groups, for regions, territorial authority areas, and area units.

Interactive population pyramid for New Zealand 
New Zealand's changing age-sex distribution over time.

Local population trends
Graphs showing past and future trends in population change for regional council and territorial authority areas.

Population projections overview
An overview of the demographic trends from the latest projections.

Area unit population projections 
Methods and assumptions used in area unit population projections.

Use NZ.Stat to access and customise further breakdowns of population estimates and projections. Find out more about NZ.Stat.

Infoshare
Use Infoshare to access time-series population estimates data. Select the following categories:
Subject category: Population
Groups: Population estimates and Demography dwelling and household estimates and Demography national family and household projections 

Find out more about Infoshare.

Reports and articles

How accurate are population estimates and projections? An evaluation of Statistics New Zealand population estimates and projections, 1996–2013 (published September 2016)
Evaluates the accuracy of recent national and subnational population estimates and projections.

Measuring uncertainty in the 2013-base estimated resident population (published September 2016)
Evaluates the accuracy of recent national and subnational population estimates and projections.

Suitable indication of future population change from 2006-base subnational population projections (published October 2012) (published August 2014)
Advice to users until new projections are released on 19 February 2015.

Estimated resident population 2013: Data sources and methods (published 2014)
Describes the data sources and methods used to produce the 2013 estimated resident population following the 2013 Census of Population and Dwellings.

Forecasting mortality in New Zealand (published 2014) 
Description of a new method for formulating mortality assumptions that was implemented in official New Zealand population projections in 2012. This paper is one of the Statistics New Zealand Working Paper series.

Evaluation of administrative data sources for subnational population estimates (published 2013)
Describes the potential for four administrative data sources to improve subnational population estimates.

How will New Zealand's ageing population affect the property market? (published 2013)
A paper considering some of the implications of an ageing population for the property market.

See more estimates and projections reports and articles.

Information about data

Get technical information such as classifications used, survey design, and a glossary of statistical terms.

DataInfo+
DataInfo+ allows you to search and browse for information about our statistical activities and data. Find information about the concepts used in the population estimates data:

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