Live births
There were 64,120 live births registered in New Zealand in the June 2010 year, up 1,160 (2 percent) from the June 2009 year, but similar to the 64,140 registrations in 2008. With the exception of 2009, births have increased in each June year since dropping to a low of 53,970 in 2002.
The highest number of births registered in any June year was 66,110 in 1962. At that time, New Zealand's mean population was just 2.5 million, compared with 4.3 million in 2010. Since then, births have averaged 57,790 per year, varying between 49,680 in 1982 to 64,510 in 1972.
Annual fluctuations in births, in part, reflect changes in the size and age of the population, the age at which women have children, and the number of children they have. In turn, the number of births influences the future size and age of the population.
Fertility rates and mother's age
In the June 2010 year, women aged 30–34 years had the highest fertility rate (127 births per 1,000 women aged 30–34 years), followed by those aged 25–29 years (110 per 1,000) and 20–24 years (77 per 1,000). Compared with the high fertility seen in the early 1960s, women in all age groups now have fewer babies. In 1962, women aged 20–24 years had the highest fertility rate (265 per 1,000), followed by those aged 25–29 years (259 per 1,000) and 30–34 years (152 per 1,000). (Age-specific fertility rates before 1981 are based on December years.)
There were more births to women in all age groups in the June 2010 year compared with the June 2002 year, when birth numbers were relatively low. The biggest increase was in the 35–39 year age group, closely followed by those aged 30–34 years. For every 1,000 women aged 35–39 years there were 19 more births in 2010 than in 2002. In 2010, women aged 30–34 years had, on average, 18 more births per 1,000 women than in 2002.
Compared with the June 2009 year, fertility rates were higher in 2010 for women in the age groups over 25 years, but lower for women aged under 25 years.
Fertility rates for women aged 40–44 years dropped from around 20 births per 1,000 in the early 1960s to around 4 per 1,000 in the mid-1980s, before increasing to 15 births per 1,000 in 2010. Among women aged 40–44 years who registered a baby in the June 2010 year, 70 percent were aged 40 or 41 years.
The median age (half are younger and half older than this age) of New Zealand women giving birth is now 30 years, compared with 26 years in the early 1960s. The median age dropped to just under 25 years in the early 1970s. Although there has been a significant increase in the median age since the 1970s, it has been relatively stable at around 30 years in the past decade.
The median age of women giving birth to their first child (based on children in the current relationship only) was 28 years in the year ended June 2010, and has been relatively stable over the last decade.
Total fertility rate
The total fertility rate summarises the age-specific fertility rates into a single number indicator of fertility. It indicates, on average, the number of babies a woman would have in her lifetime if the age-specific fertility rates in a given period stayed the same throughout her life. The total fertility rate for the June 2010 year was 2.16 births per woman, up from 2.14 in 2009, but down from 2.18 in the June 2008 year. The level required by a population to replace itself in the long term, without migration, is 2.1 births per woman. Since 1980, fertility in New Zealand has been slightly below the replacement level, with the exception of short periods around 1990 and 2009. Annual fluctuations in the total fertility rate do not necessarily indicate changes in family size, but rather changes in the timing of births.
New Zealand's total fertility rate has been relatively stable over the last three decades, averaging 2.01 births per woman. During this period, the total fertility rate varied from 1.90 to 2.18 births per woman. In contrast, fertility rates increased dramatically from the mid-1940s, peaking at 4.31 births per woman in 1961. New Zealand then experienced decreasing fertility, with the total fertility rate dropping to 4.05 in 1963, 3.00 in 1972, and 2.12 in 1979. (Total fertility rates before 1981 are based on December years.)
Births by ethnicity
In the June 2010 year, the European ethnic group gained 44,230 babies, Māori 18,430, Pacific peoples 10,390, Asian 7,850, MELAA (Middle Eastern, Latin American, and African) 1,200, and 'other' (including New Zealanders) 510. People can belong to more than one ethnic group. In 2010, one-quarter (25 percent) of babies belonged to two or more ethnic groups, compared with 13 percent of mothers.
Fertility rates for the major ethnic groups (other than Māori) are only produced for the census years 2001 and 2006. You can find these rates on the Births page of the Statistics NZ website.
Māori births
In the June 2010 year, there were 14,430 live births registered to Māori women. Māori women tend to have higher fertility rates in the younger age groups compared with the total population. The median age of Māori women giving birth was 26 years in the June 2010 year, compared with 30 years for the total population. Māori women aged 20–24 years had the highest fertility rate (157 births per 1,000 women aged 20–24 years), followed by those aged 25–29 years (147 per 1,000) and 30–34 years (112 per 1,000) in 2010. The total fertility rate for Māori women in the June 2010 year was 2.85 births per woman, above the rate for the total population (2.16 births per woman).
Fertility rates for Māori women are available from Statistics New Zealand's Infoshare database (www.stats.govt.nz/infoshare), under Population on the Browse page.
Regional live births
Auckland region had the highest number of births in the June 2010 year (23,280), accounting for 36 percent of all live births registered in New Zealand. Next came the Canterbury (7,350), Wellington (6,850), and Waikato (6,250) regions. Together, these four regions accounted for just over two-thirds of all live births registered in the June 2010 year, which is consistent with their share of New Zealand's population.
The Auckland region accounted for 79 percent of the increase in births in the June 2010 year. Six regions (Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Wellington, Otago, West Coast, and Gisborne) experienced a small drop in births between 2009 and 2010.
Fertility rates for regions are only produced for the census years 1996, 2001, and 2006. You can find these rates on the Births page on the Statistics NZ website.
Deaths and death rates
Deaths registered during the June 2010 year totalled 28,840, down slightly from 28,960 in 2009. The number of deaths has gradually increased over time due to population growth in the older age groups, partly offset by longer life expectancy. Fifty years ago, in the June 1960 year, deaths numbered 20,690. The number of deaths increased over the following 10 years, to 24,460 in 1970, then more slowly to 25,660 in 1980, and 26,780 in 1990. Statistics NZ's mid-range population projections (series 5) indicate deaths will continue to increase, surpassing 40,000 in 2029 and 50,000 in 2042.
Overall, deaths are increasingly concentrated in the older age groups. The median age at death in the June 2010 year was 77 years for males and 83 years for females, compared with 72 years for males and 78 years for females in 1990. Only 5 percent of the deceased were aged under 40 years in the June 2010 year, compared with 9 percent in 1990.
The crude death rate (deaths per 1,000 mean estimated resident population) is influenced by the age structure of the population, and therefore does not provide a true measure of the trends in mortality. For example, the crude death rate for the Māori population (4.4) was much lower than for the total population (6.6) in the June 2010 year. This lower rate is due to the much younger age structure of the Māori population.
Age-standardised death rates provide an alternative summary of the mortality trends of populations with very different age structures. The standardised death rate for the Māori population (6.7 deaths per 1,000 mean estimated population) was much higher than that for the total population (3.9) in the June 2010 year. Standardised death rates for both the Māori and total populations have dropped, down from 8.8 and 4.8 per 1,000, respectively, in the December 2000 year. (Standardised death rates are not available for June years before 2002.)
Please note that standardised death rates can only be used to compare mortality trends for populations that have been standardised against the same standard population. Life tables give a more accurate and detailed description of the mortality trends across populations and time.
Life expectancy
According to the New Zealand abridged period life table for 2007–09, a newborn girl can be expected to live, on average, 82.4 years, and a newborn boy 78.4 years. This represents longevity gains since 2006–08 of 0.2 years for both females and males. While female life expectancy is still higher than male life expectancy, the longevity gap has narrowed from 6.4 years in 1975–77 to 4.0 years in 2007–09. Since 1975–77, life expectancy at birth has increased by 6.9 years for females and 9.4 years for males.
Abridged period life tables are produced annually for the total population only. Complete life tables are produced for the Māori, non-Māori, and total populations every five years. Complete life tables present mortality measures for each single year of age, while abridged life tables present mortality measures for age groups. The latest complete life tables, in New Zealand Life Tables: 2005–07, show that Māori life expectancy was 75.1 years for females and 70.4 years for males in 2005–07, compared with 82.2 years and 78.0 years, respectively, for the total population.
Infant mortality and stillbirths
During the June 2010 year, the number of infant deaths (under one year of age) registered in New Zealand totalled 330. The infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births) has dropped over the last 40 years. In the June 2010 year, the infant mortality rate was 5.1 per 1,000, down from 5.9 in the June 2000 year and 16.6 in 1970. The Māori infant mortality rate was 7.3 per 1,000 in the June 2010 year, down from 24.3 in 1970.
Neonatal deaths (under four weeks of age) made up 60 percent of infant deaths in the June 2010 year and 30 percent did not survive their first day. The neonatal mortality rate (neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births) was 3.1 in 2010, down from 4.3 in the June 1990 year. The post-neonatal mortality rate (infant deaths over 27 days of age per 1,000 live births) also dropped, from 5.5 in 1990, to 2.1 in 2010.
There were 440 stillbirths in the June 2010 year. This corresponds to 6.8 stillbirths per 1,000 births (live and stillbirths combined). The definition of a stillbirth has changed over time. For this reason, take care when comparing stillbirth rates. Before September 1995, a stillbirth was defined as a child born dead after 28 weeks of gestation. Since September 1995, New Zealand has defined a stillbirth as a child who is born dead and either weighs 400g or more or is born after 20 weeks of gestation. This change gave more parents the right to register their child's birth. As a result, the number of stillbirths increased from 190 in 1995 to 330 in 1996 and stillbirth rates after 1995 cannot be compared with rates up to 1995. Stillbirth rates can be recalculated using the pre-1995 definition of stillbirth to provide a roughly consistent series. This definition produces a stillbirth rate that drops from 10.1 in 1970 to 4.2 in 1990 and 3.0 per 1,000 births in 2010. Despite the long-term drop in the stillbirth rate, the rate has fluctuated around 3.2 per 1,000 over the last decade.
Regional deaths and life expectancy
During the June 2010 year, the Auckland region had the highest number of deaths (7,430). Although the Auckland region is home to approximately one-third of New Zealand's population, it only accounted for about one-quarter of New Zealand's deaths. This is due to the region's relatively young age structure. Only 10 percent of the Auckland region's population is aged 65 years and over, compared with 13 percent for the national population.
The New Zealand Life Tables 2005–07 report includes the latest information from abridged life tables for regions. The highest life expectancy during 2005–07 was in the Auckland region, for both males (79.4 years) and females (83.2 years). Other regions where life expectancy exceeded the national average were Wellington, Tasman, Nelson (males only), Canterbury, and Otago. The Gisborne region had the lowest life expectancy for both males (73.8 years) and females (78.1 years).
All regions experienced increases in life expectancy between 1995–97 and 2005–07. The regions with the highest life expectancy gains were the West Coast (up 4.6 years for males and 3.3 years for females) and Auckland and Wellington (each up 4.2 years for males and 3.0 years for females).
New Zealand's natural increase
Natural increase represents the excess of births over deaths. Births outnumbered deaths by 35,280 in the June 2010 year, up from 34,000 in the June 2009 year. The rate of natural increase was 8.1 per 1,000 mean estimated resident population in the June 2010 year. The 2009-base mid-range national population projections (series 5) show that natural increase is likely to decline over the next 50 years, dropping to 5,500 in 2061.
Regional natural increase
All regions in New Zealand had more births than deaths in the June 2010 year. Auckland's natural increase (15,840) made up 45 percent of the national natural increase. Auckland's large share of New Zealand's natural increase is due to the small number of deaths relative to the number of births, and the size of its population. The next highest natural increase was in Wellington (3,850), followed by Waikato (3,510), and Canterbury (3,190).
Final figures and revised demographic rates
The vital statistics and infant mortality rates for the June 2010 year quoted above, and contained in the appended tables, are final. Fertility rates and other death rates for the June 2010 year are provisional. For more details, see the 'Technical notes' section of this release.
For technical information contact:
Anne Howard
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: demography@stats.govt.nz
Next release ...
Births and Deaths: September 2010 quarter will be released on 19 November 2010.