All references to sales movements are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated.
All manufacturing industries
The volume of manufacturing sales rose 1.8 percent in the June 2009 quarter. This follows a flat March 2009 quarter and falls totalling 9.3 percent during 2008. The main contributor to the latest rise was the meat and dairy product manufacturing industry, which rose 7.4 percent in sales volume.
Six other manufacturing industries also showed rises in sales volume for the June 2009 quarter. Paper and paper products (up 8.8 percent), and other food (up 3.3 percent) were the main contributors. Eight of the 15 industries showed offsetting falls in sales volume, with the largest being for machinery and equipment (down 7.3 percent) and non-metallic mineral products (down 9.1 percent).
Volumes are calculated by removing the effect of price changes from values.
Although the volume of sales rose in the June 2009 quarter, the value fell by 4.8 percent ($986 million), dropping to the same level as in late 2007. Lower prices for meat and dairy products, resulting in a $633 million drop in the value of meat and dairy product manufacturing, were the main cause of this fall.
By industry, the main sales value decreases for the June 2009 quarter were for meat and dairy product manufacturing (down 8.9 percent or $633 million), machinery and equipment manufacturing (down 8.0 percent or $144 million), and basic metal manufacturing, which is not seasonally adjusted (down 10.9 percent or $72 million). The largest increases, which were small in comparison, were for other food manufacturing (up 2.1 percent or $45 million) and printing, publishing and recorded media manufacturing (up 2.4 percent or $20 million).
The trend for the sales volume is flat for the June 2009 quarter, after five quarters of decline. The trend for the sales value shows downward movements for the latest two quarters.
Stocks of finished goods, which are not seasonally adjusted, were up 3.3 percent in volume for the June 2009 quarter compared with the June 2008 quarter. Stock values, at $8.4 billion, were up 0.3 percent ($25 million) from the June 2008 quarter.
All manufacturing excluding meat and dairy product manufacturing
The volume of sales, excluding meat and dairy product manufacturing, fell 2.8 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following record falls in the previous two quarters. The volume fell 16.4 percent in the last four quarters. Three manufacturing industries contributed most to the June 2009 quarter fall: machinery and equipment, non-metallic mineral products, and structural, sheet and fabricated metal products. The main rises were for paper and paper products, and other food.
The value of sales fell 3.7 percent ($508 million) in the June 2009 quarter. This follows a fall of 5.6 percent ($811 million) in the March 2009 quarter. Machinery and equipment (down $144 million) and basic metals (down $72 million) had the largest falls in sales value in the June 2009 quarter, while other food (up $45 million) had the largest rise.
The trend for the sales volume shows a decline of 17.7 percent for the latest five quarters, while the trend for the sales value is down 11.2 percent for the latest three quarters.
The volume of finished goods stocks, which is not seasonally adjusted, was down 5.7 percent for the June 2009 quarter compared with the June 2008 quarter. The value, at $5.2 billion, was up 0.5 percent.
Meat and dairy product manufacturing
The volume of sales for the meat and dairy product manufacturing industry rose 7.4 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following a rise of 23.5 percent in the March 2009 quarter. These rises were mainly due to increased dairy exports. Dairy export volumes showed rises of 15.7 percent and 23.7 percent for the March and June 2009 quarters, respectively, as measured by the Overseas Trade Indexes, while meat export volumes showed a fall of 0.4 percent and a rise of 3.5 percent for the same quarters.
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The value of sales fell 8.9 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following a rise of 9.5 percent in the March 2009 quarter. The substantial rises in export volumes, mainly for dairy products, were negated by price falls. Prices for dairy products, as measured by the Producers Price Index, fell 19.9 percent in the June 2009 quarter, while prices for meat and meat products fell 3.7 percent.
The trend for the sales volume shows strong growth in recent quarters. However, the trend for the sales value, which incorporates the impact of price falls, provisionally indicates a decline in the latest quarter.
The volume of finished goods stocks, which is not seasonally adjusted, was up 23.1 percent for the June 2009 quarter compared with the June 2008 quarter. However, the value, at $3.2 billion, is unchanged. The increase in volume was nullified by price decreases.
Note: Most dairy industry values in this survey are compiled on a non-standard quarter. There is a one-month lag in the data which means, for example, that the June quarter includes values for the months of March, April, and May. Monthly data is now available and once there is a substantial time series and a new seasonal pattern can be established, the dairy industry (combined with the meat industry) will be published on a standard quarter.
Machinery and equipment manufacturing
This industry includes the manufacture of industrial electronic equipment and appliances, and photographic and scientific equipment.
The volume of sales for this industry fell 7.3 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following a fall of 6.1 percent in the March 2009 quarter. The series is at its lowest level in 10 years.
The value of sales fell 8.0 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following a fall of 5.6 percent in the March 2009 quarter. Prices for machinery and equipment rose 0.5 percent in the March 2009 quarter and fell 1.5 percent in the June 2009 quarter, as measured by the Producers Price Index.
The trend for the sales volume shows a decline for the latest five quarters, while the trend for the sales value shows a decline for the latest three quarters. Both trend series show an accelerating rate of decline.
The volume of finished goods stocks, which is not seasonally adjusted, is down 1.9 percent for the June 2009 quarter compared with the June 2008 quarter. The value, at $612 million, is flat.
Paper and paper product manufacturing
The paper and paper product manufacturing industry includes the manufacture of pulp, paper and paperboard, solid and corrugated paperboard containers, and paper bag and sack products. The volume of sales for this industry does not have a stable seasonal pattern, so is not seasonally adjusted.
The (unadjusted) volume of sales rose 8.8 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following a fall of 0.7 percent in the March 2009 quarter.
The value of sales fell 2.6 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following a cumulative fall of 4.6 percent in the previous three quarters. Prices for paper and paper products declined 5.8 percent in the March 2009 quarter and 7.4 percent in the June 2009 quarter, as measured by the Producers Price Index, following three quarters of price increases. These periods of price increase and decrease have caused the recent divergence and convergence between the current price and constant price series in the preceding graph.
The trend for the sales volume indicates strong recent growth, while the trend for the sales value shows a decline for the latest three quarters.
The volume of finished goods stocks, which is not seasonally adjusted, was down 4.1 percent for the June 2009 quarter compared with the June 2008 quarter. The value, at $236 million, was down 6.9 percent.
Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing
The non-metallic mineral product manufacturing industry includes the manufacture of glass and glass products, ceramics, cement, lime, plaster, and concrete products.
The volume of sales fell 9.1 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following a fall of 4.7 percent in the March 2009 quarter. The series is at its lowest level in seven years.
The value of sales fell 8.9 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following a fall of 3.8 percent in the March 2009 quarter. Prices for non-metallic mineral products changed little in these quarters, up 1.0 percent and 0.1 percent in the March and June 2009 quarters, respectively, as measured by the Producers Price Index.
The trend series for both the sales volume and sales value show a marked decline for the latest five quarters.
The volume of finished goods stocks, which is not seasonally adjusted, was down 7.5 percent for the June 2009 quarter compared with the June 2008 quarter. The value, at $193 million, was down 2.9 percent.
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Revisions
Amended data received from respondents has resulted in revisions for the following industries:
- meat and dairy product manufacturing (March 2009 quarter)
- other food manufacturing (December 2008 and March 2009 quarters)
- beverage, malt and tobacco manufacturing (March 2009 quarter)
- petroleum and industrial chemical manufacturing (March 2009 quarter)
- transport equipment manufacturing (March 2009 quarter)
- machinery and equipment manufacturing (June 2008 quarter)
- furniture and other manufacturing (June 2008 to March 2009 quarters).
The main changes are in the following table.
| Industry |
Variable |
Series
MANQ. |
Period
(quarter) |
Published
15 Jun 2009 |
Published
15 Sep 2009 |
| |
|
|
|
$(million) |
| Other food |
Sales |
SNMC03A |
Dec 2008 |
2,314 |
2,325 |
| other food |
Sales |
SNMC03A |
Mar 2009 |
2,067 |
2,056 |
| Beverage, malt |
Sales |
SNMCZ2A |
Mar 2009 |
917 |
927 |
| Petroleum etc |
Stocks |
SNMC10E |
Mar 2009 |
443 |
424 |
| All Manufacturing |
Sales |
SNMCZZA |
Sep 2005 |
17,060 |
17,049 |
| All Manufacturing |
Sales |
SNMCZZA |
Dec 2008 |
21,304 |
21,314 |
| All Manufacturing |
Stocks |
SNMCZZE |
Mar 2009 |
9,689 |
9,671 |
Measurement errors
The Economic Survey of Manufacturing applies imputation methods for estimating values for small firms and non-response, and, like all statistical surveys, is subject to measurement errors, including sample errors and non-sample errors. These measurement errors affect the accuracy of the published statistics. For more information on measurement errors, please refer to the technical notes of this release.
Sample errors
The postal survey was designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):
- 5 percent for sales, salaries and wages, and value added at the total manufacturing level
- 10 percent for sales, salaries and wages, and value added at the published industry level, where value added is calculated as follows:
value added = sales – purchases + stock change
This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total manufacturing sales lies within 5 percent of the published estimate.
Sample errors are calculated each quarter for absolute values and for changes in value from the previous quarter.
The sample errors for the June 2009 quarter, at the 95 percent confidence interval limit, are:
| Industry |
Sample error for sales |
Sample error for change in sales |
| |
Percent |
| Meat and dairy product manufacturing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Other food manufacturing |
12.0 |
8.1 |
| Beverage, malt and tobacco manufacturing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Textile and apparel manufacturing |
6.9 |
4.3 |
| Wood product manufacturing |
5.3 |
2.0 |
| Paper and paper product manufacturing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Printing, publishing and recorded media |
8.5 |
5.9 |
| Petroleum and industrial chemical manufacturing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Rubber, plastic and other chemical product manufacturing |
10.6 |
2.0 |
| Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing |
4.5 |
2.6 |
| Basic metal manufacturing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Structural, sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing |
5.0 |
4.1 |
| Transport equipment manufacturing |
5.3 |
2.9 |
| Machinery and equipment manufacturing |
4.6 |
2.8 |
| Furniture and other manufacturing |
8.2 |
7.3 |
| Total manufacturing |
1.6 |
0.9 |
Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries all large firms are surveyed and all small- to medium-sized firms are modelled using administrative data from Inland Revenue.
Imputation
Small firms
Small- to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Their variables are instead modelled from administrative data from Inland Revenue. Ratios calculated from the postal sample responses are applied to the administrative data to provide estimated values.
Non-response imputation
Although attempts are made to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. Values for non-responding businesses are estimated using a range of methods, including:
- regression imputation
- historic imputation
- mean imputation.
Regression imputation involves estimating the variable of interest from the unit's administrative data (GST sales), based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying their response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement over the quarter of similar businesses. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses.
The table below shows percentages of sales imputed in the June 2009 quarter:
| Industry |
Non-response |
Tax modelled |
|
Percentage of sales |
| Meat and dairy product manufacturing |
0.3 |
2.4 |
| Other food manufacturing |
7.8 |
5.0 |
| Beverage, malt and tobacco manufacturing |
10.8 |
6.7 |
| Textile and apparel manufacturing |
19.3 |
16.1 |
| Wood product manufacturing |
11.5 |
9.6 |
| Paper and paper product manufacturing |
8.1 |
0.6 |
| Printing, publishing and recorded media |
12.4 |
9.8 |
| Petroleum and industrial chemical manufacturing |
3.1 |
5.0 |
| Rubber, plastic and other chemical product manufacturing |
10.2 |
6.8 |
| Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing |
9.6 |
7.8 |
| Basic metal manufacturing |
4.0 |
5.9 |
| Structural, sheet and fabricated metal product manufacturing |
20.3 |
10.7 |
| Transport equipment manufacturing |
19.3 |
10.8 |
| Machinery and equipment manufacturing |
16.7 |
12.1 |
| Furniture and other manufacturing |
19.4 |
21.4 |
| Total manufacturing |
8.0 |
6.4 |
Response rate
The response rate applies to the postal sample and gives the proportion of sales obtained from survey responses (compared with being imputed). The Economic Survey of Manufacturing has a target response rate of 85 percent. The response rate achieved for the June 2009 quarter was 91 percent.
For technical information contact:
John Gudgeon or Ken Smart
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: subannuals@stat.govt.nz
Next release ...
Economic Survey of Manufacturing: September 2009 will be released on 15 December 2009