Seasonally adjusted exports – March 2010 quarter
The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise exports increased 10.4 percent to $10.4 billion in the March 2010 quarter. This is the first quarterly increase for exports since the December 2008 quarter and follows falls of 6.6 percent and 0.2 percent in the September and December 2009 quarters respectively.
The trend for total exports is now 7.8 percent higher than the recent low level reached in the September 2009 quarter; but is still 8.5 percent lower than the record high level reached in the December 2008 quarter.
The seasonally adjusted increase in exports for the March 2010 quarter was dominated by a rise in milk powder, butter, and cheese, with increases recorded in almost all of the other main commodities series.
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese recorded the largest increase, up 29.2 percent ($529 million), the largest increase seen in this series since the December 2007 quarter. The value in the March 2010 quarter is the highest since the record high in the December 2008 quarter. Quantities were 1.7 percent lower in March 2010 than the December 2009 quarter.
- Meat and edible offal recorded the second largest increase, up 8.4 percent ($99 million), with quantity up 3.8 percent.
- Logs, wood, and wood articles recorded the third largest increase, up 16.2 percent ($96 million), with quantity up 16.1 percent. This is the highest seasonally adjusted value and quantity recorded since the series began in 1988.
- Crude oil, which is not seasonally adjusted, recorded the next largest increase, up 9.7 percent ($46 million), with quantity up 10.3 percent.
- Additionally, wine, with quantity up 9.8 percent in the March 2010 quarter and value up 4.6 percent ($12 million), recorded the highest seasonally adjusted value and quantity of exports since the series began.
- Fish, crustaceans, and molluscs recorded the largest decrease, down 3.2 percent ($9 million), with quantity down 14.7 percent.
- Casein and caseinates also recorded a decrease, down 0.4 percent (down less than $1 million), with quantity down 14.8 percent.
Seasonally adjusted imports – March 2010 quarter
The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise imports increased 6.8 percent (to $10.2 billion) in the March 2010 quarter. This increase follows four consecutive quarterly decreases although the level is below what it was during the same quarter last year.
The quarterly imports trend has risen over the last two quarters, following falls since the September 2008 quarter. The current trend value is still 17.9 percent below the September 2008 peak.
With the exception of capital goods (which decreased 2.1 percent or $34 million), all of the Broad Economic Categories (BEC) recorded increases. Intermediate goods led this quarter’s increases, up 8.3 percent ($365 million), contributing just over half of the total increase in imports.
- Within the intermediate goods category, crude oil increased 16.4 percent ($150 million), mainly through increased quantity although price also increased. Crude oil is imported in large, irregular shipments, which can cause large percentage fluctuations in the series. Intermediate goods other than crude oil increased 6.1 percent ($209 million), following an 8.9 percent decrease in the December 2009 quarter. The crude oil series is not seasonally adjusted.
- Consumption goods rose 4.8 percent ($123 million) in the March 2010 quarter, following decreases in the previous three quarters.
- Passenger motor cars recorded a 10.9 percent ($69 million) increase in the March 2010 quarter, continuing the trend of large percentage increases in recent quarters. The level of passenger motor car imports is still below the level seen during the early part of 2008.
- Capital goods decreased 2.1 percent ($34 million) in the current quarter, the result of a decline in the value of aircraft being imported in the current quarter. Plant and machinery partly offset this movement, with a 4.3 percent ($57 million) increase.
Seasonally adjusted trade balance – March 2010 quarter
The seasonally adjusted trade balance for the March 2010 quarter was a surplus of $233 million, equivalent to 2.2 percent of exports. This surplus follows deficits of 1.1 and 2.0 percent of exports for the December 2009 and September 2009 quarters respectively. The December 2001 quarter was the last time the seasonally adjusted trade balance was in surplus.
March 2010 month – actual values
In the month of March 2010, merchandise exports were valued at $4.1 billion, up $3 million (0.1 percent) from March 2009. This is the first monthly rise in exports compared with the same month of the previous year since May 2009. This is only the second time that merchandise exports have exceeded $4 billion in any calendar month with March 2009 being the previous occurrence. Excluding the one-off export of large aircraft in March 2009, merchandise exports would have risen $132 million (3.4 percent) in March 2010.
After falling for 11 months the trend for merchandise exports appears to have reached a low point in October 2009, and has increased 7.5 percent since then, although more data points are required to confirm this direction. The level of the trend is 6.7 percent lower than its peak in November 2008.
In the month of March 2010 compared with March 2009, key increases and decreases in exports by commodity and by country of destination were as follows:
By commodity:
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese recorded the largest increase, up $157 million (19.3 percent), driven by an increase in unsweetened whole milk powder, mainly due to higher quantity. Elevated prices for salted butter (which also had greatly increased quantities) and anhydrous milk fat were other notable contributors to the increase.
- Crude oil recorded the second largest increase, up $119 million (122 percent), mainly due to the quantity exported more than doubling.
- Logs, wood, and wood articles recorded the next largest increase, up $58 million (28.5 percent), led by an increase in exports of pinus radiata logs.
- Aircraft and parts recorded the largest decrease, down $133 million (92.8 percent) largely due to the one-off export of large aircraft in March 2009.
- Preparations of cereals, flour, and starch and casein and caseinates recorded the second and third largest decreases, both down $37 million (31.8 percent and 37.4 percent respectively). The fall in preparations of cereals, flour, and starch was driven by a quantity-led fall in dairy-based nutritional formula exports.
- Meat and edible offal was the next largest decrease, down $28 million (4.7 percent), led by falls in frozen beef.
By country of destination:
- Japan recorded the largest increase, up $56 million (21.5 percent), led by increases in aluminium and aluminium articles, and petroleum and petroleum products other than crude oil.
- China recorded the second largest increase, up $43 million (10.9 percent). This increase was driven by a rise in milk powder, butter, and cheese exports, (up $76 million), but was partially offset by a fall in preparations of cereals, flour, and starch.
- Australia recorded the next largest increase, up $28 million (3.0 percent) despite a $128 million decrease in aircraft and parts (due to the one-off export of large aircraft in March 2009). The increase was driven by a rise in crude oil, and smaller rises in a range of commodities.
- The United States recorded the largest decrease, down $80 million (17.5 percent) with falls across a range of commodities, led by miscellaneous edible preparations. Other notable contributors to the decline included casein and caseinates; iron and steel, and articles; albuminoidal substances and glues; and meat and edible offal.
- The United Kingdom recorded the second largest decrease, down $39 million (19.0 percent), led by a decline in lamb.
In the month of March 2010, merchandise imports were valued at $3.5 billion, down $126 million (3.5 percent) from March 2009.
The trend for merchandise imports increased for the sixth month in a row, although the rate of increase appears to have eased slightly compared with recent months. The trend value peaked in September 2008, and the current value is 17.8 percent below that level.
In March 2010 compared with March 2009, key decreases and increases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:
By commodity:
- Electrical machinery and equipment recorded the largest decrease, down $108 million (28.8 percent), due to decreases in a variety of commodities, including cellular network equipment, electric generating sets, and electric motors and generators.
- Mechanical machinery and equipment recorded the next largest decrease, a fall of $102 million (19.0 percent). Leading contributors to this decrease were wind turbines, wind turbine parts, and printing machinery.
- Vehicles, parts, and accessories recorded the largest offsetting increase, up $102 million (41.4 percent), mostly due to an increase in the import of passenger motor vehicles – although values in March 2009 were very low for this commodity.
By country of origin:
Petroleum and petroleum product imports into New Zealand generally come from a small pool of sources, and the irregular nature of these imports had a significant impact on the leading country movements for the March 2010 month.
- Japan had the largest decrease in imports, down $162 million (40.4 percent). The main contributors to this decrease were petroleum and petroleum products (other than crude oil), down $108 million to $86,043; and mechanical machinery and equipment (down $54 million or 58.1 percent).
- Brunei Darussalam (down $95 million) and Singapore (down $81 million or 42.9 percent) were the second and third largest decreases respectively. Brunei Darussalam was down due to crude oil, with a total value of only $11,319 imported from all commodities this month, and Singapore was down due to petroleum and petroleum products (other than crude oil).
- Denmark had the next largest decrease in imports, down $75 million or 81.0 percent, due to the importation of electrical and mechanical wind turbine equipment in the previous year.
- Malaysia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar were the top three increases. These movements are all related to the imports of crude oil. The value of the respective increases was $135 million, $123 million, and $72 million.
Trade balance March 2010 – actual values
The trade balance for the March 2010 month was a surplus of $567 million (14.0 percent of exports). As a percentage of exports, this is the largest trade surplus for a March month since 2002, when the surplus was 16.7 percent of exports.
The annual trade balance for the March 2010 year was a deficit of $194 million (0.5 percent of exports) compared with an average deficit of 15.2 percent of exports over the preceding five March years.
Year ended March 2010 – actual values
The value of merchandise exports in the year ended March 2010 was $39.5 billion, down $3.8 billion (8.8 percent) from the previous March year. In the year ended March 2010, key increases and decreases in exports compared with the year ended March 2009 were as follows:
By commodity:
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese recorded the largest decrease, down $656 million (7.3 percent), led by declines in natural milk constituents and cheese.
- Crude oil recorded the second largest decrease, down $462 million (18.8 percent), due to lower prices.
- Meat and edible offal recorded the third largest decrease, down $434 million (8.0 percent), with falls in beef, venison, and lamb.
- Casein and caseinates, and aluminium and aluminium articles recorded the next largest decreases, down $346 million (33.8 percent) and $324 million (25.0 percent) respectively, with both falls due to lower prices.
- Logs, wood, and wood articles recorded the largest increase, up $243 million (11.0 percent), driven by a quantity-led increase in pinus radiata logs (up $329 million or 47.7 percent).
By country of destination:
- The United States recorded the largest decrease, down $1.2 billion (26.0 percent), led by declines in milk powder, butter, and cheese (driven by natural milk constituents); casein and caseinates (due to lower quantities and prices); and meat and edible offal (driven by beef).
- Japan recorded the second largest decrease, down $790 million (21.8 percent), led by declines in aluminium and aluminium articles; milk powder, butter, and cheese; and logs, wood, and wood articles.
- Australia recorded the next largest decrease, down $760 million (7.6 percent), largely driven by a price-led decline in crude oil.
- China recorded the largest increase, up $841 million (28.4 percent), driven by increases in milk powder, butter, and cheese (led by unsweetened whole milk powder); and in logs, wood, and wood articles (largely due to double the quantity and value of pinus radiata logs being exported).
- Singapore recorded the second largest increase, up $400 million (50.4 percent), driven by a quantity-led increase in crude oil and the one-off export of an oil rig in December 2009.
The value of merchandise imports in the year ended March 2010 was $39.7 billion, down $8.3 billion (17.3 percent) from the previous March year. This is the first year ended March decrease since 1997, and the largest percentage decrease for a March year since March 1975.
Key increases and decreases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:
By commodity:
- Petroleum and products had the largest decrease, down $2.1 billion (25.7 percent), led by price driven decreases in the import of crude oil and automotive diesel.
- Mechanical machinery and equipment had the second largest decrease, down $1.5 billion (23.4 percent). This decrease was caused by a variety of items, including an oil platform imported in April 2008, earth moving machinery, and computers.
- Vehicles, parts, and accessories reported the next largest decrease, down $1.1 billion (25.2 percent), due to a decline in the import of transport vehicles and passenger motor cars.
- The largest offsetting increase was aircraft and parts, up $528 million (57.2 percent), mainly due to an increase in the importing of large aircraft.
By country of origin:
- Japan recorded the largest annual decrease, down $1.2 billion (31.8 percent), driven by falls in petroleum and petroleum products; vehicles, parts, and accessories; mechanical machinery and equipment; and electrical machinery and equipment.
- Australia recorded the second largest decrease, down $971 million (11.4 percent), led by falls in petroleum and petroleum products; vehicles, parts, and accessories; and mechanical machinery and equipment.
- Imports from Singapore were the next largest decrease, down $967 million (40.6 percent), led by a decrease in petroleum and petroleum products (down 697 million or 42.8 percent).
- The largest increase by country of origin was France, up $377 million (44.0 percent), driven by aircraft and parts.
Exchange rate movements
According to the Reserve Bank's Trade Weighted Index (TWI), the New Zealand dollar was 0.8 percent higher in March 2010 compared with February 2010, and 20.9 percent higher compared with March 2009.
The TWI fell 0.3 percent in the March 2010 quarter, compared with the December 2009 quarter, the first quarterly fall following three quarters of rises. The TWI was 21.6 percent higher in the March 2010 quarter than it was in the same period of the previous year.
Updates to previous statistics
Provisional values published on 26 March 2010 have been updated. Merchandise trade statistics for the latest three months are provisional to allow for the inclusion of late data and amendments.
For technical information contact:
Sarah Urlich or Scott Davis
Christchurch (03) 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz.
Next release...
Overseas Merchandise Trade: April 2010 will be released on 27 May 2010.