Seasonally adjusted exports – June 2010 quarter
The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise exports increased 6.8 percent to $11.2 billion in the June 2010 quarter. This is the second quarterly increase for exports and follows a 11 percent increase in the March 2010 quarter.
The trend for goods exported ($11.2 billion), which reflects the long-term behaviour in export values, is now at a similar level to the previous peak in late 2008, having recovered from a decline during 2009. The current high level of the trend coincides with record values for dairy exports.
Dairy products (including casein and caseinates), which were up 17 percent ($414 million), accounted for over half of the increase in seasonally adjusted export values for the June 2010 quarter. Significant contributions also came from: meat and edible offal; logs, wood, and wood articles; and fish, crustaceans, and molluscs.
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese recorded the largest increase, up 15 percent ($366 million) following a 30 percent increase in the March 2010 quarter. Most of the June quarter increase was due to higher prices, with quantities almost unchanged, up 0.3 percent, from last quarter. The seasonally adjusted value for milk powder, butter, and cheese in the June 2010 quarter, is the highest ever recorded, surpassing the previous high in the December 2008 quarter.
- Meat and edible offal recorded the second largest increase, up 7.8 percent ($101 million), again mainly price-led with quantities up 0.9 percent.
- Logs, wood, and wood articles recorded the third largest increase, up 12 percent ($82 million), a record seasonally adjusted value, surpassing the previous record last quarter.
- Fish, crustaceans, and molluscs up 17 percent, and casein and caseinates up 33 percent, both $48 million rises, were the next largest increases.
- Fruit recorded the largest decrease, down 5.3 percent ($20 million) despite quantities being 5.1 percent higher.
- Wine was the next largest decrease, down 1.5 percent ($4.0 million) with quantities 5.5 percent lower.
Seasonally adjusted imports – June 2010 quarter
The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise imports increased 5.8 percent (to $10.8 billion) in the June 2010 quarter. This increase is the second consecutive quarterly increase, following five consecutive quarterly decreases.
The trend for merchandise imports continued to increase for the third quarter in a row, and the rate of increase appears to be strengthening. The trend value peaked in the September 2008 quarter, with the current value still 12 percent below that level.
Intermediate goods led this quarter’s increases, up 6.7 percent ($315 million), contributing just over half of the total increase in imports. All of the remaining broad economic categories (BEC) recorded increases, with the exception of capital goods.
Within the intermediate goods category, intermediate goods other than crude oil increased 8.0 percent ($289 million), led by increases in parts and accessories. This increase follows a 7.2 percent increase in the March 2010 quarter. Crude oil decreased 3.1 percent ($33 million), through a decrease in quantity. The crude oil series is not seasonally adjusted due to crude oil being imported in large, irregular shipments which can cause large percentage fluctuations in the series.
- Military and other goods increased 253 percent ($190 million), with the import of two offshore patrol vessels in the June 2010 quarter, HMNZS Wellington and HMNZS Otago, being significant contributors to this increase.
- Consumption goods rose 1.1 percent ($30 million) in the June 2010 quarter, following an increase of 4.7 percent in the previous quarter. In terms of value, this is still 5.8 percent lower than the peak in March 2009.
- Capital goods decreased 1.0 percent ($15 million) in the current quarter, the result of a decline in the value of plant and machinery being imported in the current quarter. Transport equipment partly offset this movement, with a 34 percent ($61 million) increase. Imports of capital goods have now reduced to levels not seen since 2003.
Seasonally adjusted trade balance – June 2010 quarter
The seasonally adjusted trade balance for the June 2010 quarter was a surplus of $389 million, equivalent to 3.5 percent of exports. This is the second consecutive seasonally adjusted surplus. Prior to the surplus in the March 2010 quarter, the previous surplus was in the December 2001 quarter.
June 2010 month – actual values
In the month of June 2010, merchandise exports were valued at $3.8 billion, up $552 million (17 percent) from June 2009. Exports have been higher for each of the last four months compared with the corresponding month in 2009.
In the month of June 2010 compared with June 2009, key increases and decreases in exports by commodity and by country of destination were as follows:
By commodity:
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese recorded the largest increase, up $244 million (44 percent), driven by an increase in unsweetened whole milk powder, mainly due to higher prices. Unsalted butter and cheddar cheese were also significant contributors.
- Logs, wood, and wood articles recorded the second largest increase, up $68 million (38 percent), led by an increase in the export of pinus radiata based products with logs being the largest contributor.
- Ships, boats, and floating structures recorded the next largest increase, up $50 million (116 percent) led by an increase in pleasure boats.
- Mechanical machinery and equipment increased $48 million (39 percent) spread across a number of commodities.
- By contrast there were only a few, relatively small, decreases in exports. Aircraft and parts recorded the largest decrease, down $36 million (75 percent), due to the export of large aircraft in June 2009, with none being exported in June 2010.
- The next largest decrease was casein and caseinates, down $13 million (19 percent).
By country of destination:
- Australia recorded the largest increase, up $157 million (22 percent), with increases in several commodities, crude oil being the largest.
- Japan recorded the second largest increase, up $91 million (43 percent), led by unwrought aluminium and logs, wood, and wood products.
- China recorded the next largest increase, up $74 million (24 percent). This increase was driven by a rise in unsweetened whole milk powder.
- The Virgin Islands (British), up $48 million, and Hong Kong, up $38 million (54 percent) also recorded significant increases, both due to exports of pleasure boats mentioned earlier.
- As with commodities, decreases by country of destination were fewer and smaller. Spain recorded the largest decrease, down $36 million (70 percent) due to value of pleasure boats exported there in June 2009.
- India recorded the second largest decrease, down $20 million (21 percent).
In the month of June 2010, merchandise imports were valued at $3.5 billion, down $56 million (1.6 percent) from June 2009. Without the one-off import of aircraft valued at $571 million in June 2009, June 2010 imports would have increased $515 million or 17 percent.
In June 2010 compared with June 2009, key decreases and increases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:
By commodity:
- Aircraft had the largest decrease, down $608 million, with the majority of this being attributed to the one-off import of aircraft, valued at $571 million, in June 2009.
- Electrical machinery and equipment also decreased, down $88 million, mostly due to the import of electricity generators in June 2009. Imports of this type of commodity tend to be irregular.
- Petroleum and products had the largest increase, up $311 million (111 percent). Significant contributors to this increase were quantity driven increases in both crude oil (up $164 million or 105 percent) and automotive diesel ($83 million or 303 percent).
- Vehicles, parts, and accessories recorded the next largest increase, up $124 million (52 percent), mostly due to an increase in the import of passenger motor vehicles (up $90 million or 61 percent) – although values in June 2009 were very low for this commodity.
- Ships, boats, and floating structures also had a notable increase, up $88 million in June 2010. This increase was due to the import of an offshore patrol vessel, the HMNZS Wellington.
By country of origin:
- France had the largest decrease in imports, down $567 million (93 percent) due to the previously mentioned one-off import of aircraft in June 2009.
- United States of America had the next largest decrease, down $78 million (or 21 percent). The main portion of this decrease was due to the import of electricity generators in June 2009 as mentioned above. This import contributed $86 million towards the previous June total.
- Singapore had the largest increase in imports, up $118 million or 222 percent. The majority of this increase was due to increases in the import of automotive diesel and refined petroleum.
- Australia recorded the next largest increase, up $106 million (18 percent). This increase was led by the previously mentioned import of the HMNZS Wellington.
- Japanese imports increased $105 million (52 percent) in the month of June 2010. A variety of items contributed to this increase, including refined petroleum, passenger motor vehicles, and automotive diesel.
- Iraq increased $85 million due to the import of crude oil, with no imports in June 2009. Crude oil import shipments can be irregular, which gives rise to large fluctuations in quantities and values, especially by country of origin.
Trade balance June 2010 – actual values
The trade balance for the June 2010 month was a surplus of $276 million (7.3 percent of exports). This is the sixth consecutive monthly trade surplus. This is the first June month surplus since 2002.
The annual trade balance for the June 2010 year was a surplus of $639 million (1.6 percent of exports) compared with an average deficit of 15 percent of exports over the preceding five June years.
Year ended June 2010 – actual values
The value of merchandise exports in the year ended June 2010 was $40.7 billion, down $2.4 billion (5.5 percent) from the previous June year.
In the year ended June 2010, key increases and decreases in exports compared with the year ended June 2009 were as follows:
By commodity:
- Meat and edible offal recorded the largest decrease, down $467 million (8.5 percent), led by falls in frozen lamb, beef, and venison.
- Casein and caseinates recorded the second largest decrease, down $412 million (39 percent).
- Aircraft and parts recorded the third largest decrease, down $344 million (71 percent), due to the higher value of export of large aircraft in the year ended June 2009.
- Mechanical machinery and equipment and iron and steel, and articles recorded the next largest decreases, down $195 million (11 percent) and $184 million (19 percent), respectively.
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese, the largest commodity category, recorded a $130 million decline (1.4 percent) led by drops in several commodities, particularly natural milk constituents and cheddar cheese, partly offset by a rise in unsweetened whole milk powder.
- Logs, wood, and wood articles recorded the largest increase, up $307 million (13 percent), driven by pinus radiata logs.
- Crude oil was the next largest increase, up $162 million (8.3 percent).
By country of destination:
- The United States recorded the largest decrease, down $1.3 billion (26.0 percent), led by declines in milk powder, butter, and cheese (led by natural milk constituents); casein and caseinates; meat and edible offal (mainly frozen beef cuts), and crude oil.
- Japan recorded the second largest decrease, down $303 million (9.0 percent), led by declines in milk powder, butter, and cheese; casein and caseinates, miscellaneous edible preparations, and logs, wood, and wood articles.
- Germany recorded the next largest decrease, down $192 million (22 percent), led by meat and edible offal and casein and caseinates.
- The United Kingdom also recorded a significant decrease, down $190 million (11 percent), led by meat and edible offal.
- Among other country destinations, Indonesia, Algeria, Italy, Belgium, and Madagascar all recorded decreases of over $100 million.
- China recorded the largest increase, up $750 million (22 percent), driven by increases in milk powder, butter, and cheese (led by unsweetened whole milk powder); and in logs, wood, and wood articles (mainly pinus radiata logs).
- Singapore recorded the second largest increase, up $352 million (45 percent), driven by crude oil and the one-off export of an oil rig in December 2009.
The value of merchandise imports in the year ended June 2010 was $40.0 billion, down $6.1 billion (13 percent) from the previous June year. This is the first year ended June decrease since 2002, and the largest percentage decrease for a June year since June 1968.
Key decreases and increases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:
By commodity:
- Mechanical machinery and equipment had the largest decrease, down $995 million (17 percent). A variety of commodities contributed to this decrease, including motors and engines, machinery parts, and liquid or powder sprayers.
- Petroleum and products recorded the next largest decrease for the year, down $863 million (12 percent). This decrease was mainly due to falls in automotive diesel, partly refined petroleum and jet fuel.
- Electrical machinery and equipment had the third largest fall, a decrease of $859 million (20 percent). Cellular telephone equipment, electric generator sets, and electric generators and motors led a variety of commodities contributing to this decrease.
- Aircraft and parts also showed a notable decrease, with a fall of $504 million (36 percent). The majority of this movement can be explained by the one-off import of aircraft in June 2009 valued at $571 million.
- Ships, boats and floating structures were the largest offsetting increase, up $180 million or 113 percent. Most of this movement was the result of the import of the previously mentioned offshore patrol vessels, HMNZS Wellington and HMNZS Otago.
By country of origin:
- Japan recorded the largest annual decrease, down $837 million (23 percent). Over half of this decrease was due to a fall in diesel. Mechanical and electrical machinery also both made significant contributions to Japan’s decrease.
- France had the second largest decrease, down $750 million (54 percent), led by the previously mentioned one-off import of aircraft in June 2009. Also contributing to this decrease, although much less in terms of value, was a $59 million (58 percent) decrease in vehicles, parts, and accessories.
- Indonesia had the third largest decrease, down $557 million (49 percent), the majority of which was the result of crude oil imports decreasing $467 million (85 percent).
- China contributed the next largest decrease in imports, down $538 million (8.1 percent). The decrease was spread among a variety of commodities, led by electrical machinery, salt, earth, stone, lime, and cement, and iron and steel articles – with decreases of $140 million, $79 million, and $74 million respectively. A notable offsetting increase was in mechanical machinery, which increased $91 million for the year.
- Russia had the largest offsetting increase, up $242 million (121 percent), driven by an increase in the import of crude oil.
Exchange rate movements
According to the Reserve Bank's Trade Weighted Index (TWI), the New Zealand dollar was 0.1 percent higher in June 2010 compared with May 2010, and 11 percent higher compared with June 2009.
The TWI rose 2.2 percent in the June 2010 quarter, compared with the March 2010 quarter. The TWI was 14 percent higher in the June 2010 quarter than it was in the same period of the previous year.
Updates to previous statistics
Provisional values published on 25 June 2010 have been updated. Merchandise trade statistics for the latest three months are provisional to allow for the inclusion of late data and amendments.
For technical information contact:
Henry Minish or Scott Davis
Christchurch (03) 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz.
Next release...
Overseas Merchandise Trade: July 2010 will be released on 30 August 2010.