Information in this release is for the month of February 2009 compared with February 2008 unless otherwise stated.
Exports
The value of merchandise exports for February 2009 was $3.5 billion, down $243 million (6.6 percent) from February 2008. This is the first monthly decrease in exports (compared with the same month of the previous year) since August 2007.
The trend for total merchandise exports has been rising at an average rate of 0.7 percent per month since January 2008. This follows a period of strong growth for the months of July 2007 to December 2007, when the trend rose by an average of 2.1 percent per month. The growth in the second half of 2007 was associated with the start up of Tui oil in August 2007 and strong growth in dairy prices over that period.
This month's decline in exports was led by milk powder, butter and cheese, crude oil and aluminium and aluminium articles.
Milk powder, butter and cheese declined $288 million (28.0 percent), led by whole milk powder down $188 million, skimmed milk powder down $33 million and cheddar cheese down $22 million. Prices were generally lower for commodities throughout this category, with mixed results for quantities.
Crude oil was the next most significant decrease, down $72 million (41.7 percent) with lower quantities and prices. Aluminium and aluminium articles declined $51 million (44.6 percent) mainly as a result of lower quantities exported.
The largest offsetting increase was meat and edible offal, up $120 million (23.5 percent). This increase was led by fresh and frozen lamb cuts with higher quantities and prices. Meat and edible offal export values have been increasing for the last 11 months (when compared with the same month of the previous year). At $633 million they now are at their highest level ever, surpassing the previous high of $532 million in March 2005.
The next largest increase was from preparations of cereals, flour and starch up $34 million (65.7 percent), led by an increase in milk-based nutritional powder. Precious metals, jewellery and coins were up $21 million (42.0 percent) mainly due to an increase in non-monetary gold.
By country of destination, the largest decreases in total exports were to Australia, down $99 million (12.4 percent), Saudi Arabia, down $43 million (55.6 percent), and Japan, down $42 million (14.3 percent). The majority of the decrease to Australia was due to a decline in crude oil. The decrease for Saudi Arabia was mainly due to reductions in whole and skim milk powder whereas aluminium exports were the leading commodity contributing to the overall decrease for Japan.
The largest offsetting increase by country was the United States of America, up $105 million (30.5 percent), spread over several commodities.
Imports
The total value of merchandise imports for February 2009 was $3.0 billion, down $490 million (14.2 percent) from February 2008. This month’s fall is the largest since December 1990 in dollar terms, and the largest since February 1993 in percentage terms (compared with the same month of the previous year), and brings the total value of merchandise imports to its lowest level since December 2005.
The trend for merchandise imports has been falling steeply since a turning point in September 2008, down 8.1 percent ($334 million) at an average monthly rate of 1.7 percent since then. In the 13 months prior to September 2008 the trend had been rising strongly, with an average monthly increase of 1.7 percent.
Of the main broad economic categories, intermediate goods led this month’s decrease, down $285 million (17.4 percent) due largely to a $265 million (70.1 percent) fall in crude oil imports. Capital goods fell $35 million (5.8 percent) as falls in vehicles and mechanical machinery and equipment were partly offset by a rise in imported aircraft. Consumption goods was the only category to record an increase, rising $19 million (2.3 percent), spread across a number of commodities. ---PDF BREAK---
Passenger motor car imports were down $158 million (62.5 percent) compared with February 2008, to a total of $95 million. This decrease was led by large, quantity driven falls across all of the major categories of cars. The value of passenger motor cars imported in February 2009 was the lowest for any month since January 1994, with the smallest quantity since the series began in January 1988 .
At the more detailed commodity level, the largest decline was for petroleum and products, down $259 million (46.5 percent), led by the previously mentioned $265 million decrease in crude oil. However, the timing of crude oil shipments is irregular, and can cause large percentage fluctuations in the series. The next largest decrease was recorded by vehicles, parts and accessories which fell $236 million (53.8 percent) led by the passenger motor cars mentioned earlier.
Nineteen of the 40 top import commodity groups recorded increases in February, but of these only two had increases of more than $20 million. Aircraft and parts rose $58 million (240 percent) due to large aircraft being imported this month. Electrical machinery and equipment rose $52 million (19.8 percent), led by electric transformers.
By country of origin, Malaysia and Australia recorded the largest decreases, down $127 million and $125 million, respectively. Crude oil was the biggest contributor to the decreases from each of these countries, due to large quantity reductions in both cases. The largest increase in imports was from the United States, up $81 million (29.9 percent), led by the importation of large aircraft this month.
Trade balance
The trade balance for February 2009 was a surplus of $489 million, or 14.2 percent of exports. Historically, the trade balance tends to be a surplus in February months, however, as a percentage of exports, this month recorded the highest February surplus since 2001.
The monthly trend for the trade balance remains a deficit, but is the smallest it has been since July 2002. The last time the trade balance trend was a surplus was in January 2001.
The annual trade balance for the year ended February 2009 was a deficit of $5.2 billion, or 12.1 percent of exports. In dollar terms, this is similar to the average annual deficit for the previous five years.
Three months ended February 2009
Exports of merchandise goods for the three months ended February 2009 were valued at $10.5 billion, the same level as the three months ended February 2008.
In the three months ended February 2009, key increases and decreases in exports compared with the three months ended February 2008 were as follows:
By commodity:
- Meat and edible meat offal had the largest increase for the quarter, up $275 million (20.3 percent) led by fresh and frozen lamb cuts.
- Aircraft and parts had the next largest increase, up $132 million (340 percent). This was mostly due to large aeroplanes being exported in the period.
- Milk powder, butter and cheese, down $428 million (14.5 percent), was the largest decrease, led by declines in whole and skim milk powder.
- Crude oil, down $404 million (58.9 percent), and aluminium and aluminium articles, down $107 million (31.3 percent), had the next largest decreases for the period.
By country:
- Exports to the United States of America were up $403 million (41.0 percent), the largest increase for the period. This was led by increases in natural milk constituents, cheese, and casein and caseinates.
- The People’s Republic of China, up $335 million (61.4 percent), had the next largest increase. This movement was led by increases in whole milk powder and dairy-based nutritional powdered formulas.
- The largest decrease for the quarter was for Australia, down $183 million (8.1 percent), mainly due to a decrease in crude oil.
Imports of merchandise goods for the three months ended February 2009 were valued at $10.4 billion, down 0.7 percent from the same period of the previous year.
For the three months ended February 2009, key increases and decreases in the value of imports compared with the three months ended February 2008 were:
By commodity:
- Vehicles, parts and accessories decreased $379 million (29.5 percent), led by falls in passenger motor vehicles ($317 million) and transport vehicles ($130 million), partly offset by an increase in imports of tractors ($41 million).
- Petroleum and products also decreased $379 million (20.3 percent), led by a $322 million fall in crude oil, which resulted from quantity and price decreases.
- Electrical machinery and equipment had the largest rise, up $146 million (17.7 percent) driven by telecommunication equipment.
- Fertiliser was up $79 million (85.8 percent) – the second biggest increase – led by a $69 million increase in potassium chloride which was largely price driven.
By country of origin
- The largest decrease was from United Arab Emirates, down $289 million (78.9 percent) due to a quantity-driven $288 million fall in crude oil.
- The next largest decrease was from Australia, down $224 million (11.6 percent), led by a $135 million fall in petroleum and products.
- Imports from Japan fell $195 million (20.0 percent) – the third largest decrease – led by a $176 million drop in tractors and a $55 million drop in public transport vehicles.
- The largest increase was from the United States, up $211 million (24.2 percent) due to a $72 million increase in mechanical machinery and equipment and a $52 million increase in aircraft.
- The next largest increase was from China, up $194 million (13.9 percent) led by increases across a number of commodities, including a $48 million increase in telecommunications equipment.
Exchange rate movements
According to the Reserve Bank’s Trade Weighted Index, the New Zealand dollar fell 4.6 percent in February 2009 compared with January 2009, and 28.3 percent compared with February 2008.
Updates to previous statistics
Provisional values published on 26 February 2009 have been updated. Merchandise trade statistics for the latest three months are provisional to allow for the inclusion of late data and amendments.
For technical information contact:
Henry Minish or Kate Jackett
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz
Next release...
Overseas Merchandise Trade: March 2009 will be released on 29 April 2009