Seasonally adjusted exports – December 2009 quarter
The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise exports decreased 2.8 percent to $9.2 billion in the December 2009 quarter. This is the fourth consecutive quarterly decrease for exports, and follows falls of 5.4 percent and 6.6 percent in the June and September 2009 quarters respectively.
Since reaching its highest level in the December 2008 quarter, the trend for total merchandise exports has fallen 17.7 percent, the largest fall in the trend series since the series began in 1988.
The seasonally adjusted decrease in exports for the December 2009 quarter was dominated by falls in the categories milk powder, butter, and cheese, and crude oil.
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese recorded the largest decrease, down 10.1 percent ($198 million) and is at its lowest value since the September 2007 quarter. Quantities were 6.1 percent lower over the same period.
- Crude oil, which is not seasonally adjusted, was down 19.5 percent ($114 million) with quantities 18.0 percent lower.
- Casein and caseinates, down 33.1 percent ($65 million), was the next largest fall with quantities down 25.9 percent.
- Meat and edible offal was the largest increase, up 6.0 percent ($66 million). Quantities rose 14.5 percent in the December 2009 quarter, following a 15.5 percent fall in the September 2009 quarter.
Seasonally adjusted imports – December 2009 quarter
The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise imports decreased 3.2 percent to $9.4 billion in the December 2009 quarter. This is the fifth consecutive quarterly decline, and follows falls of 3.1 percent and 6.9 percent in the June and September 2009 quarters respectively.
Since reaching its highest level ever in the September 2008 quarter, the trend for total merchandise imports has fallen 23.6 percent, continuing the largest fall in the trend series since it began in 1988. Large one-off imports over $100 million are excluded from the trend series calculation.
Of the broad economic groups, capital goods showed the largest decline in the December 2009 quarter, followed by intermediate goods and consumption goods. These decreases were partly offset by increases in passenger motor cars, petrol and avgas, and military and other goods.
- Capital goods imports fell 11.1 percent ($200 million) in the December 2009 quarter, with falls in both machinery and plant, and in transport equipment. Machinery and plant was down 7.2 percent ($103 million) following a fall of 4.9 percent in the September 2009 quarter. Transport equipment, which is not seasonally adjusted, was down 26.5 percent ($97 million), following a fall of 52.8 percent in the September 2009 quarter.
- Intermediate goods declined 3.9 percent ($173 million) in the December 2009 quarter, following a 0.6 percent increase in the September 2009 quarter and an 11.9 percent fall in the June 2009 quarter. Declines in parts and accessories of capital goods and in processed fuels and lubricants (other than motor spirit) were the main contributors to this decline. Crude oil, which is not seasonally adjusted, rose 2.6 percent ($22 million). Crude oil is imported in large, irregular shipments, which can give rise to large fluctuations in quantities and values.
- Consumption goods declined 3.6 percent ($96 million) in the December 2009 quarter, following a 5.3 percent decline in the September 2009 quarter. The main contributors to this decline were: semi-durable goods (includes items such glassware, cutlery, and apparel); non-durable consumer goods (includes items such as medicaments, printed material, and toiletries); and primary and processed food and beverages, mainly for household consumption.
- Passenger cars rose 26.8 percent ($133 million) in the December 2009 quarter, following rises of 15.2 percent and 15.1 percent in the June and September 2009 quarters respectively. The last three quarterly increases are from a low level, with the March 2009 quarter value being the lowest since the September 1997 quarter.
- Petrol and avgas increased 29.3 percent ($73 million) in the December 2009 quarter.
Seasonally adjusted trade balance – December 2009 quarter
The seasonally adjusted trade balance for the December 2009 quarter was a deficit of $170 million (1.8 percent of exports), following deficits of 2.6 percent and 2.3 percent of exports in the June and September 2009 quarters respectively. The most recent quarterly seasonally adjusted trade surplus was in the December 2001 quarter.
December 2009 month – actual values
In the month of December 2009, merchandise exports were valued at $3.4 billion, 11.3 percent lower than December 2008. This is the seventh consecutive monthly fall in exports compared with the same month of the previous year.
The trend for merchandise exports peaked in November 2008, and has fallen 14.9 percent since then, although the rate of decline has been easing in recent months.
In the month of December 2009 compared with December 2008, key increases and decreases in exports by commodity and by country of destination were as follows:
By commodity:
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese showed the largest decrease, down $158 million (16.8 percent). This fall was led by unsweetened whole milk powder, despite quantities being over 20 percent higher. Natural milk constituents were also a significant contributor to the decrease.
- Aircraft and parts were the next largest decrease, down $150 million (96.2 percent), due to the export of a large aircraft in December 2008.
- Meat and edible offal were down $116 million (22.4 percent), led by frozen lamb cuts with bone in and frozen beef cuts.
- Casein and caseinates were down $94 million (65.7 percent), led by casein acid, with quantities being nearly half what they were in December 2008.
- Ships, boats, and floating structures, up $114 million, were the most significant increase, due mainly to the one-off export of an oil rig.
- Crude oil exports, up $50 million (39.7 percent), were the next largest increase, due to increased prices, with quantities almost the same as December 2008.
By country of destination:
- The United States of America was the destination with the largest decrease in December 2009, down $197 million (39.7 percent) with casein acid, natural milk constituents, and frozen boneless beef cuts being significant contributors.
- Madagascar was the second largest decrease, down $111 million, due to the export of a large aircraft in December 2008, with virtually no exports there from New Zealand in December 2009.
- Japan was the next largest decrease, down $84 million (28.8 percent), with unwrought aluminium and frozen boneless beef cuts leading the falls.
- Singapore was the destination with the largest increase in exports, up $193 million (278 percent), due to the one-off export of the oil rig mentioned above and an increase in crude oil.
- The second largest increase was to the People’s Republic of China, up $64 million (20.6 percent). Unsweetened whole milk powder and pinus radiata logs were the main contributors to this increase.
In the month of December 2009, merchandise imports were valued at $3.4 billion, down $776 million (18.6 percent) from December 2008. This follows declines of 28.3 percent and 21.8 percent for the months of October and November 2009 respectively compared with the same months of the previous year.
The trend for merchandise imports peaked in August 2008, and has declined 25.0 percent since then, although the rate of decline appears to have eased in recent months.
In December 2009 compared with December 2008, import values declined across most of the major commodity categories and from most of the major countries by country of origin.
Key decreases and increases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:
By commodity:
- Mechanical machinery and equipment recorded the largest decrease, down $174 million (31.0 percent). There were falls across a wide range of commodities, with earth moving machinery, computers, and spray equipment being notable contributors to the decrease.
- Vehicles, parts, and accessories was the second largest decrease, down $96 million (22.4 percent), including declines in imports of tractors and goods transport vehicles.
- Salts, earths, stone, lime, and cement was the next largest decrease, down $72 million (86.3 percent), driven by a fall in natural calcium phosphates with greatly reduced quantities and prices for this commodity.
- Petroleum and petroleum products also declined, down $34 million (5.3 percent).
- By comparison, increases in imports were fewer and smaller, the largest being sugars and sugar confectionery, up $26 million (216 percent), driven by raw cane sugar.
- Food residues, wastes, and fodder was the second largest increase, up $14 million (43.7 percent).
By country of origin:
- The largest decrease in imports by country of origin came from China, down $118 million (19.4 percent). The decline was spread across several commodities, including electrical machinery and equipment; textiles and textile articles; iron and steel, and articles; and salts, earths, stone, lime, and cement.
- The second largest decrease by country of origin was from the United States, down $99 million (24.1 percent), led by falls in mechanical machinery and equipment, with other notable contributors being petroleum and petroleum products (other than crude); and vehicles, parts, and accessories.
- Imports of petroleum and products tend to be irregular, especially by country of origin. In December 2009, Russia was down $81 million (99.6 percent), and the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria were up $82 million (207 percent) and $56 million respectively, driven by imports of crude oil; while Singapore was down $79 million (31.0 percent) led by decreases in petroleum and products (other than crude).
Trade balance – December 2009 actual values
The trade balance for the December 2009 month was a surplus of $2 million (0.1 percent of exports). As a percentage of exports, this is much less than the average of 10.4 percent for the preceding five December months.
The trade balance for the December 2009 year was a deficit of $517 million (1.3 percent of exports) compared with an average deficit of 11.3 percent of exports over the last 10 December years, and deficits of $5.3 billion and $5.6 billion in the December 2007 and December 2008 years respectively.
Year ended December 2009 – actual values
The value of merchandise exports in the year ended December 2009 was $39.7 billion, down 7.5 percent ($3.2 billion) from the previous December year. In the year ended December 2009, key increases and decreases in exports compared with the year ended December 2008 were as follows:
By commodity:
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese recorded the largest decrease, down $1.2 billion (12.9 percent), led by unsweetened whole milk powder.
- Crude oil, down $1.0 billion (37.7 percent), was the second largest decrease, mainly due to lower prices.
- Aluminium and aluminium articles were the next largest decrease, down $545 million (38.2 percent), led by unwrought aluminium (not alloyed).
- Preparations of cereals, flour, starch, or milk recorded the largest increase, up $159 million (19.8 percent), led by dairy-based nutritional formulas.
- Fruit was $155 million (10.7 percent) higher – the next largest increase – led by kiwifruit.
- Precious metals, jewellery, and coins were $150 million (23.1 percent) higher.
By country of destination:
- Australia had the largest decrease of any country, down $861 million (8.6 percent), led by crude oil.
- Japan had the next largest decrease, down $793 million (21.9 percent), led by unwrought aluminium (not alloyed).
- The United States recorded a decrease of $429 million (9.8 percent), led by crude oil. There was no crude oil exported to the United States in the year ended December 2009.
- China had the largest increase of any country, up $1.1 billion (43.1 percent), led by unsweetened whole milk powder and pinus radiata logs.
- Singapore was the next largest increase, up $237 million (27.5 percent), led by the one-off oil rig, and exports of crude oil.
The value of merchandise imports in the year ended December 2009 was $40.1 billion, down $3.2 billion (17.2 percent) from the previous December year. This is the largest percentage decrease for a December year since the series began in 1960.
Key increases and decreases in imports by commodity and by country of origin were as follows:
By commodity:
- Petroleum and products had the largest decrease, down $2.8 billion (32.7 percent), led by a price driven crude oil decline.
- Vehicles, parts, and accessories had the second largest decrease, down $1.8 billion (36.3 percent). This decrease was led by a decline in passenger motor vehicles which included falls in both petrol cars with a 1500–3000cc rating and those with a cc rating exceeding 3000. Imports of goods transport vehicles also decreased.
- Mechanical machinery and equipment was the next largest decrease, down $1.2 billion (19.2 percent), led by a decrease in well sinking and boring machinery, mainly due to an oil platform that was imported in the previous December year (in April 2008). In addition, imports of earth moving machinery and computers were both down.
- The largest offsetting increase was aircraft and parts, up $653 million (75.1 percent), mainly due to an increase in imports of large aircraft.
- Optical, medical, and measuring equipment was the next largest increase, up $74 million (5.7 percent).
By country of origin:
- Australia recorded the largest annual decrease, down $1.3 billion (15.4 percent), led by falls in petroleum and petroleum products; vehicles, parts, and accessories; iron and steel, and articles; and inorganic chemicals.
- Japan recorded the second largest decrease, down $975 million (24.6 percent), driven by falls in vehicles, parts, and accessories; and mechanical machinery and equipment.
- Imports from Malaysia were the next largest decrease, down $902 million (45.4 percent), led by mechanical machinery and equipment (due mainly to the importation of an oil platform in the previous year as mentioned above); petroleum and petroleum products (led by crude oil); and food residues, wastes, and fodder.
- The largest increase by country of origin was France, up $527 million (65.6 percent), driven by aircraft and parts.
- The second largest increase by country of origin was Denmark, up $107 million (37.3 percent), led by electrical machinery and equipment, and mechanical machinery and equipment.
Exchange rate movements
According to the Reserve Bank's Trade Weighted Index (TWI), the New Zealand dollar was 0.8 percent lower in December 2009 compared with November 2009, and 17.4 percent higher compared with December 2008.
The TWI rose 4.6 percent in the December 2009 quarter, compared with the September 2009 quarter, the third quarterly rise following four quarters of falls. The TWI was 13.4 percent higher in the December 2009 quarter than it was in the same period of the previous year.
Updates to previous statistics
Provisional values published on 7 January 2010 have been updated. Merchandise trade statistics for the latest three months are provisional to allow for the inclusion of late data and amendments.
For technical information contact:
Sarah Urlich or Soni Makaafi
Christchurch (03) 964 8700
Email: overseastrade@stats.govt.nz.
Next release...
Overseas Merchandise Trade: January 2010 will be released on 26 February 2010.