Retail Trade Survey: October 2009

All references to sales movements are to seasonally adjusted series unless otherwise stated.

October 2009

In October 2009, total retail sales were flat (up less than 0.1 percent or $2 million). Sales in core retail, which excludes the vehicle-related industries, rose slightly, up 0.5 percent ($23 million). This increase, of which $11 million came from the food-related industries, was largely offset by a 1.5 percent decrease ($21 million) across the vehicle-related industries.

The largest increases were:

• cafes and restaurants – up 10.0 percent ($32 million)
• accommodation – up 4.2 percent ($9 million)
• department stores – up 2.2 percent ($7 million).

The largest offsetters were:

• clothing and softgoods retailing – down 6.7 percent ($16 million)
• supermarket and grocery stores – down 1.1 percent ($14 million)
• automotive fuel retailing – down 1.9 percent ($10 million)
• automotive electrical, smash repairs, tyres – down 7.0 percent ($8 million).

The rest of the retail industries moved up or down by less than $5 million.

Sales trend

The total retail sales trend has been rising since February 2009 (up 1.9 percent), following a 13-month period of decline. However, the rate of increase appears to have eased slightly in recent months.

The core retail sales trend has been rising since September 1995 at an average of 0.4 percent per month. The average rate of increase has slowed to 0.2 percent per month since mid-2007.

Food related retailing

The latest figures indicate mixed results across the food related industries. Combined sales increases for this group amounted to $11 million – up 0.6 percent compared with September 2009 – with a $32 million increase in cafes and restaurants only partly offset by decreasing sales in the other industries.

Cafes and restaurants

Cafes and restaurants was the largest contributor to the 0.5 percent increase in core retail sales, with an increase of $32 million (10.0 percent) on the previous month. This strong increase is consistent across the industry. Previously, the highest percentage sales increase for this industry had been in December 2005 (up 6.5 percent on the previous month).

The trend has decreased 2.3 percent since May 2009, following a six-month period of increase. However, the rate of decrease has eased.

Supermarket and grocery stores

Supermarket and grocery stores was down 1.1 percent ($14 million) in October 2009 – the second-largest decrease in total retail sales. This followed a 1.0 percent increase in September 2009.

The average rate of increase in the supermarket and grocery stores sales trend has been easing since April 2009 and appears to have flattened in recent months. Initial trend estimates should be used with caution as they may be revised as more data points become available.

Movements in the other food-related industries were:

• Fresh produce – flat sales (down less than $1 million, less than 0.1 percent); the trend has been declining since May 2009.
• Takeaway food retailing – flat sales (down less than $1 million, 0.2 percent); the trend has been rising since December 2008, but appears to have flattened in recent months.
• Liquor retailing – sales down ($3 million, 2.6 percent); the trend has been decreasing at an average of 0.5 percent since May 2009.
• Other food retailing – sales down ($4 million, 6.7 percent); the sales trend may have reached a turning point in July 2009, with the sales level down 0.5 percent since then. Initial trend estimates should be used with caution as they may be revised as more data points become available.

Vehicle-related industries

Sales for all four vehicle-related industries fell, with a combined $21 million drop (down 1.5 percent).

Automotive fuel retailing was the largest decrease in vehicle-related industries, down 1.9 percent ($10 million). Having fallen since July 2008, the trend has been flat since June 2009. The latest figures show that the sales trend is 17.9 percent lower than its July 2008 peak.

Movements in the other vehicle-related industries were:

• Automotive electrical, smash repair, and tyres – sales were down $8 million (7.0 percent), following another fall in the previous month (down 1.8 percent). The trend began rising in November 2008, but has been flat in recent months.
• Automotive repair and services nec – slight decrease in sales (less than $2 million); the trend had been rising since December 2008, but has flattened in the latest months.
• Motor vehicle retailing – slight decrease in sales (less than $1 million); although the trend shows a 5.6 percent increase since March 2009, the level is 23.4 percent lower than May 2007, which marked the beginning of a period of 22 months of decline.

Clothing and softgoods retailing

Clothing and softgoods retailing sales were down $16 million (6.7 percent), and had the biggest decrease in retail sales in October 2009, following a 2.9 percent increase in the previous month.

As illustrated in the graph below, the month-to-month sales can be changeable. Despite greater variability than normal in recent months, the trend has been rising since March 2009, and is up 9.2 percent since then. Whilst the average monthly rate of decrease between September 2008 and March 2009 was 0.5 percent, the average monthly rate of increase since then has been 1.3 percent.

Regional estimates

Sales were up in the North Island (up 0.5 percent) and flat in the South Island (up 0.1 percent), compared with September 2009. Changes by region were as follows:

• Auckland – up 0.1 percent
• Waikato – down 0.3 percent
• Wellington – no change, sales rose less than 0.1 percent
• Remainder of the North Island – up 1.7 percent
• Canterbury – up 0.5 percent
• Remainder of the South Island – down 0.4 percent.

By region, sales were flat in Wellington and Auckland, up in the 'remainder of the North Island' and Canterbury, and slightly down in the 'remainder of the South Island' and Waikato. The trend for the North Island has been rising at an average of 0.3 percent per month since February 2009, while the South Island sales trend has shown little change for the last two years. 

Illustrated in the graph above, the regional sales trends are as follows:

• Auckland – the trend has been rising, up 5.3 percent since February 2009
• Waikato – the trend has also been rising, up 1.6 percent since February 2009
• Wellington – down 8.0 percent since it began falling in April 2008
• Remainder of the North Island – the trend reached a turning point in April 2009, up 1.7 percent since then
• Canterbury – the trend has fallen 3.3 percent since January 2009, but has flattened in the latest months
• Remainder of the South Island – the trend has been rising since January 2009, up 3.2 percent.

Revisions

There were no revisions to the Retail Trade Survey in the October 2009 month.

Comparison statistics

For October 2009 compared with September 2009:

• The food price index fell 1.5 percent.
• New registrations of cars and station wagons (including vehicles previously registered overseas) rose 2.1 percent.
• Seasonally adjusted short-term overseas visitor arrivals fell 0.7 percent.
• As first published (on 10 November 2009), the seasonally adjusted value of the retail Electronic Card Transaction (ECT) series fell 0.2 percent, and the seasonally adjusted value of the core retail ECT series fell 0.4 percent.

Other:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate was unchanged at 2.50 percent throughout October 2009.

Measurement errors

All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors. These include both sample errors and non-sample errors. In addition, the survey applies imputation methodologies to cope with small firms and non-response. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the results from the survey. For more information on measurement errors, please refer to the 'Technical notes' of this release.

Sample errors

The postal survey was designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

• 2 percent for sales at the total national retail trade level
• 10 percent for sales at the published national retail industry level.

This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total retail trade sales lies within 2 percent of the published estimate

At the industry level, the following sample errors occurred in the October 2009 month (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries, all large firms are surveyed and all small to medium-sized firms are modelled using administrative data sourced from Inland Revenue.

Imputation

Small firms

Small to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Their variables are instead modelled from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. Ratios calculated from the postal sample units are applied to the administrative data to provide an estimate of their variables.

Non-response imputation

Although every attempt is made to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. Values for non-responding businesses are estimated by a number of methods, including:

• regression imputation
• historic imputation
• mean imputation.

Regression imputation involves estimating sales from the unit's administrative data (GST sales) based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying their response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement of similar businesses over the month. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses.

Postal response rate

The response rate describes the proportion of geographic units that provided survey responses. Note that the calculation of this response rate relates only to data for the postal sample. The Retail Trade Survey has a target response rate of 85 percent. The response rate achieved for the October 2009 survey was 91 percent.

The table below indicates the percentage of sales imputed in the October 2009 month:

For technical information contact:
Chris Stephenson or Yannick Monteyne
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz

Next release ...

Retail Trade Survey: November 2009 will be released on 21 January 2010.