All references to sales movements are to seasonally adjusted series unless otherwise stated.
June 2010 quarter sales volume summary
All references to dollar values in this section are at September 1995 quarter prices.
The volume of total retail sales rose for the fifth consecutive quarter, up 1.3 percent ($182 million) in the June 2010 quarter. This is the biggest increase in sales volumes since the March 2007 quarter. All four vehicle-related industries had increases in sales volumes. The 20 core retail industries (which excludes the four vehicle-related industries) accounted for just over half of the increase in sales volumes, up 0.9 percent ($95 million). This followed a 0.5 percent fall in the March 2010 quarter.
The largest increase was in motor vehicle retailing (up 4.0 percent). Motor vehicle retailing has been the largest contributor to the increase in sales volumes in the December 2009, March 2010, and June 2010 quarters. This position had been held by appliance retailing in the June 2009 and September 2009 quarters.
The biggest contributors to the core retail increase this quarter were appliance retailing (up 3.4 percent), accommodation (up 5.4 percent), clothing and softgoods retailing (up 3.4 percent), and supermarkets and grocery stores (up 0.8 percent).
The biggest decreases were in cafes and restaurants (down 2.6 percent), and recreational goods retailing (down 2.0 percent).
Fourteen of the 24 retail industries had increased volumes in the June 2010 quarter, while 10 had decreases.
June 2010 quarter sales value summary
Total retail sales values for the June 2010 quarter rose 0.5 percent ($83 million) compared with the March 2010 quarter. Retail sales values have increased every quarter since the March 2009 quarter. The value of core retail sales rose 0.4 percent ($51 million), following a 0.6 percent ($73 million) fall in the March 2010 quarter.
Thirteen of the 24 retail industries had increases, with the largest increase in motor vehicle retailing (up 3.6 percent or $62 million). Motor vehicle retailing has been one of the top five contributors to the change in total retail sales values since the March 2009 quarter, and has been the largest contributor in both the March 2010 and June 2010 quarters. Because of their large size, the motor vehicle retailing and automotive fuel retailing industries often have a significant impact on total retail sales.
Increases in core retail included supermarket and grocery stores (up 0.9 percent or $36 million), accommodation (up 4.8 percent or $32 million), and clothing and softgoods retailing (up 3.2 percent or $22 million).
The biggest decrease was in automotive fuel retailing, down 2.4 percent ($40 million). Other significant decreases include cafes and restaurants (down 2.1 percent or $21 million) and recreational goods retailing (down 2.3 percent or $14 million).
June 2010 quarter trends
The total retail sales volume trend has been rising since the June 2009 quarter, up 2.9 percent. The core retail sales volume trend has also been rising, up 2.2 percent since the March 2009 quarter. Previously, both trends had been declining.
As illustrated in the following graph, while the total retail sales volume trend has been rising since reaching a turning point in the June 2009 quarter, it is still 4.1 percent down on the peak seen in June 2007.
The level of the core retail sales volume trend is at its highest, 0.4 percent above the level recorded before the period of decline experienced between the September 2007 and the March 2009 quarters.
The trend in total retail sales values has been rising since March 2009, up 3.3 percent. The trend fell 2.5 percent between the June 2008 and the March 2009 quarters. The trend in core retail sales values has flattened since the December 2009 quarter.
Actual sales June 2010 quarter
In the June 2010 quarter compared with the June 2009 quarter:
- the volume of actual retail sales, expressed in September 1995 quarter prices, was $13.4 billion, up 2.8 percent
- the value of actual retail sales was $16.1 billion, up 2.7 percent.
Motor vehicle and automotive fuel retailing
Motor vehicle retailing had both the biggest sales volume increase (up 4.0 percent), and the biggest sales value increase (up 3.6 percent or $62 million) in the June 2010 quarter. Motor vehicle retailing has been the largest contributor to the increase in sales volume since the September 2009 quarter, and has also been one of the top five ranking contributors to the total retail sales value increases since the March 2009 quarter. Furthermore, it has been the largest contributor in both the March 2010 and June 2010 quarters.
The motor vehicle retailing sales volume trend has risen 10.6 percent since the September 2009 quarter, after falling 28.7 percent between the September 2007 and the September 2009 quarters. Similarly, the sales value trend has been rising since the June 2009 quarter, and has risen 14.1 percent since then. The current level of the sales value trend is, however, still 15.4 percent below its peak of $2,134 million in the June 2007 quarter.
In the June 2010 quarter, the automotive fuel retailing sales volume had its first increase (up 0.6 percent) since the June 2009 quarter. This industry had the largest sales value decrease (down 2.4 percent or $40 million) for this quarter.
The trend in the volume of automotive fuel retailing sales has fallen 3.6 percent since the June 2009 quarter, but has flattened in the latest quarter. The trend in the value of automotive fuel retailing sales has risen 8.0 percent since the June 2009 quarter. This trend showed a decrease between the September 2008 and the June 2009 quarters, at a rate stronger than the rate of increase since the June 2009 quarter. At the June 2010 quarter, the level of the trend is still 10.6 percent below the peak reached in the June 2008 quarter.
Supermarkets and grocery stores
Both sales volume and sales value in supermarkets and grocery stores have increased in the June 2010 quarter, up 0.8 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. This follows two quarters of falls. This industry is one of the main contributors to the increase in volumes, and the second largest sales value increase ($36 million) in the June 2010 quarter.
The trend in the volume of supermarkets and grocery stores sales has fallen 0.8 percent since the September 2009 quarter, although it appears to have flattened in the latest quarter. The sales value trend has fallen 0.9 percent since September 2009, the first time it has done so since the series began in the September 1995 quarter.
Accommodation
Accommodation recorded the third largest increase in both sales volumes (up 5.4 percent) and sales values (up 4.8 percent or $32 million) in the June 2010 quarter.
After falling 9.7 percent between the June 2007 and the June 2009 quarters, the sales volume trend has since risen 12.4 percent. The rate of increase is strong, averaging 3.0 percent since the June 2009 quarter. The level of the sales value trend is at its highest since the beginning of the series, and has risen 12.3 percent since the June 2009 quarter.
Cafes and restaurants
Cafes and restaurants had the largest decrease in sales volumes in the total retail industries, down 2.6 percent; and the largest decrease in sales values in the core retailing industries, down 2.1 percent ($21 million) in the June 2010 quarter. Despite a 0.5 percent sales value increase in April 2010, cafes and restaurants have had two consecutive sales decreases, resulting in an overall decrease for the quarter.
Both sales volume and sales value trends seem to have reached turning points in the December 2009 quarter, and have been falling since then, down 5.2 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively.
Stock
All references to stocks are in actual dollars.
The actual value of stocks held at the end of the June 2010 quarter was 3.2 percent ($171 million) higher than at the end of the June 2009 quarter. This is the second quarter to show an increase in the value of stocks held compared with the same period of the previous year, since the four consecutive periods of falls between the March 2009 and December 2009 quarters.
Compared with a year earlier, 14 of the 24 retail industries showed increases in stock values. The biggest increases were in:
- other retailing, up 13.5 percent ($74 million)
- motor vehicle retailing, up 7.4 percent ($68 million)
- recreational goods retailing, up 8.3 percent ($35 million)
- supermarket and grocery stores, up 6.8 percent ($35 million)
- automotive electrical, smash repair, tyres, up 27.6 percent ($25 million)
- automotive repair and services nec (not elsewhere classified), up 13.1 percent ($12 million).
The other eight industries had increases of $8 million or less.
Of the ten industries that held decreased stock values, the biggest decreases were in:
- appliance retailing, down 7.1 percent ($27 million)
- liquor retailing, down 12.5 percent ($20 million)
- hardware retailing, down 5.2 percent ($16 million).
Regional estimates
In the June 2010 quarter, the value of seasonally adjusted retail sales in both the North Island and the South Island increased, up 0.3 percent ($33 million) and 1.1 percent ($47 million), respectively. Changes in regional sales were as follows:
- Auckland, up just 0.2 percent ($12 million)
- Waikato, up 1.4 percent ($21 million)
- Wellington, down 0.5 percent ($9 million)
- Remainder of the North Island, up just 0.2 percent ($9 million)
- Canterbury, up 1.8 percent ($38 million)
- Remainder of the South Island, up 0.4 percent ($9 million).
Illustrated in the graph below, regional sales trends are as follows:
- Auckland – the trend has been rising (up 6.2 percent since the March 2009 quarter). The trend fell 4.2 percent in the five quarters from March 2008 to March 2009.
- Waikato – the trend has been rising (up 6.9 percent since the March 2009 quarter). The trend fell 2.8 percent between December 2008 and March 2009.
- Wellington – the trend has been rising since the September 2009 quarter (up 1.1 percent). It is however still 5.3 percent lower than the peak reached in the June 2008 quarter.
- Remainder of the North Island – the trend has been rising (up 2.2 percent since June 2009), but has flattened in recent quarters. The level of the trend is 2.5 percent below the level reached in the March 2008 quarter, when it reached a turning point and fell for five quarters.
- Canterbury – the trend reached a turning point in the March 2009 quarter and its current level is 3.1 percent lower than this. The trend has flattened in the latest quarter.
- Remainder of the South Island – the trend has been rising (up 6.2 percent since the March 2009 quarter), after falling 2.5 percent between the June 2008 and March 2009 quarters.
Contributions to total actual retail sales in the June 2010 quarter were:
- Auckland, 32.8 percent
- Waikato, 9.4 percent
- Wellington, 10.6 percent
- Remainder of the North Island, 22.2 percent
- Canterbury, 12.8 percent
- Remainder of the South Island, 12.2 percent.
June 2010 month
In the June 2010 month, seasonally adjusted total retail sales increased 0.9 percent ($52 million) compared with May 2010. This month’s increase was driven by core retail (which excludes vehicle-related industries), up 1.5 percent ($61 million). Fourteen of the 20 core retail industries recorded increases.
The largest increases in core retail were in recreational goods retailing (up 9.5 percent or $18 million), other retailing (up 6.7 percent or $17 million), and liquor retailing (up 11.9 percent or $11 million). Automotive repair and services nec was the only vehicle-related industry to increase significantly in June, up 5.6 percent ($10 million).
The largest decreases were in automotive fuel retailing, down 2.8 percent ($16 million), followed by appliance retailing (down 3.7 percent or $8 million), and cafes and restaurants (down 2.4 percent or $8 million).
The total retail sales trend has been rising since February 2009 (up 3.6 percent), although the rate of growth has flattened in recent months. The core retail trend has also been rising, up 0.7 percent since February 2010.
Seasonally adjusted total retail sales increased in all regions except Remainder of the North Island.
Regional sales trends were as follows:
- Auckland – the sales trend has been rising since January 2009, up 6.6 percent, but has recently flattened.
- Waikato – the sales trend has risen 6.7 percent since January 2009; the rate of increase has been strong, averaging 0.6 percent a month since September 2009.
- Wellington – the sales trend has fallen 5.9 percent since March 2008; but has flattened since January 2010.
- Remainder of the North Island – the sales trend has been flat since November 2009, falling less than 0.1 percent since then.
- Canterbury – the sales trend has been rising since February 2010, up 2.1 percent. The level of the trend is 2.9 percent below the peak reached in January 2009.
- Remainder of the South Island – the sales trend has been rising since January 2009, up 6.7 percent; the rate of increase has eased since January 2010.
Revisions
There were no revisions in the June 2010 quarter.
Related information
For the June 2010 quarter compared with the March 2010 quarter:
- The consumers price index rose 0.3 percent.
- New Zealand Transport Agency figures, which are not seasonally adjusted, showed new registrations of cars and station wagons (including cars previously registered overseas) were up 0.4 percent.
Long-term comparisons:
- Credit card billings in New Zealand, including spending using New Zealand and overseas issued cards, rose 2.6 percent in the month of June 2010 and rose 3.1 percent in the June 2010 quarter (each compared with the same period of the previous year).
Other:
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate (OCR) was increased once during the June 2010 quarter. The OCR began the quarter at 2.50 percent and was increased to 2.75 percent on 10 June.
Measurement errors
All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors. These include both sample errors and non-sample errors. In addition, the survey applies imputation methodologies to cope with small firms and non-response. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the results from the survey. For more information on measurement errors, please refer to the 'Technical notes' section of this release.
Sample errors
The postal survey was designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):
- 2 percent for sales at the total national retail trade level
- 10 percent for sales at the published national retail industry level.
This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total retail trade sales lies within 2 percent of the published estimate.
Retail trade survey: June 2010 month sample errors by industry
At the 95 percent confidence interval limit |
| Retail industry |
Level
(relative percent) |
Movement
(absolute percent) |
| Supermarket and grocery stores |
3.7 |
1.2 |
| Fresh meat, fish, poultry, fruit, and vegetables |
8.8 |
6.1 |
| Liquor retailing |
10.1 |
6.7 |
| Other food retailing |
9.1 |
5.6 |
| Takeaway food retailing |
5.6 |
2.7 |
| Department stores |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Furniture and floor coverings |
8.4 |
5.2 |
| Hardware |
6.6 |
2.1 |
| Appliance retailing |
9.1 |
2.3 |
| Recreational goods |
5.9 |
3.7 |
| Clothing and softgoods |
6.1 |
4.8 |
| Footwear |
9.3 |
0.9 |
| Chemist |
5.7 |
3.9 |
| Household equipment repair services |
16.9 |
17.7 |
| Other retailing |
7.1 |
4.6 |
| Motor vehicle retailing |
9.1 |
3.2 |
| Automotive fuel retailing |
6.0 |
2.7 |
| Automotive electrical services, smash repairing, tyre retailing |
6.8 |
4.8 |
| Automotive repair and services, nec |
8.3 |
6.1 |
| Accommodation |
6.8 |
2.3 |
| Bars and clubs |
8.2 |
3.7 |
| Cafes and restaurants |
4.8 |
3.0 |
| Personal and household goods hiring |
11.7 |
5.9 |
| Other personal services |
6.0 |
3.3 |
| Total retail trade |
1.7 |
1.5 |
Note: nec = not elsewhere classified.
Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries, all large firms are surveyed and all small to medium-sized firms are modelled using administrative data sourced from Inland Revenue. |
Retail trade survey: June 2010 month sample errors by region
At the 95 percent confidence interval limit |
| Region |
Level
(relative percent) |
Movement
(absolute percent) |
| Auckland |
3.4 |
1.5 |
| Waikato |
11.9 |
4.1 |
| Wellington |
5.5 |
2.7 |
| Remainder of the North Island |
5.9 |
1.7 |
| Canterbury |
6.3 |
2.3 |
| Remainder of the South Island |
9.0 |
2.9 |
Imputation
Small firms
Small to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Their variables are instead modelled from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. Ratios calculated from the postal sample units are applied to the administrative data to provide an estimate of their variables.
Non-response imputation
Although every attempt is made to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. Values for non-responding businesses are estimated by a number of methods, including:
- regression imputation
- historic imputation
- mean imputation.
Regression imputation involves estimating sales from the unit's administrative data (GST sales) based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying their response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement of similar businesses over the month. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses.
| Sales imputed in the June 2010 month |
| Retail industry |
Tax modelled |
Non-response |
|
Percentage of sales |
| Supermarket and grocery stores |
5.7 |
6.2 |
| Fresh meat, fish, poultry, fruit, and vegetables |
8.8 |
17.5 |
| Liquor retailing |
11.8 |
15.0 |
| Other food retailing |
11.2 |
14.1 |
| Takeaway food retailing |
8.0 |
16.4 |
| Department stores |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Furniture and floor coverings |
13.0 |
16.9 |
| Hardware |
6.0 |
9.5 |
| Appliance retailing |
8.0 |
9.6 |
| Recreational goods |
8.9 |
15.1 |
| Clothing and softgoods |
8.7 |
10.1 |
| Footwear |
7.9 |
8.8 |
| Chemist |
5.6 |
15.2 |
| Household equipment repair services |
9.4 |
12.1 |
| Other retailing |
16.4 |
13.7 |
| Motor vehicle retailing |
10.4 |
8.9 |
| Automotive fuel retailing |
2.1 |
6.6 |
| Automotive electrical services, smash repairing, tyre retailing |
10.7 |
14.2 |
| Automotive repair and services, nec |
11.2 |
12.9 |
| Accommodation |
8.6 |
16.8 |
| Bars and clubs |
10.3 |
14.0 |
| Cafes and restaurants |
10.1 |
17.3 |
| Personal and household goods hiring |
11.8 |
14.1 |
| Other personal services |
13.3 |
15.6 |
| Total retail trade |
7.8 |
10.2 |
| Note: nec = not elsewhere classified |
Postal response rate
The response rate describes the proportion of geographic units that provided survey responses. Note that the calculation of this response rate relates only to data for the postal sample. The Retail Trade Survey has a target response rate of 85 percent. The response rate achieved for the June 2010 month was 89 percent.
For technical information contact:
Yannick Monteyne or Chris Stephenson
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz
Next release ...
Retail Trade Survey: July 2010 will be released on 14 September 2010.