Retail Trade Survey: December 2009 quarter

All references to sales movements are to seasonally adjusted series unless otherwise stated.

December 2009 quarter sales volume summary

All references to dollar values in this section are at September 1995 quarter prices.

The volume of total retail sales rose for the third consecutive quarter, up 1.0 percent ($139 million) in the December 2009 quarter. This rise was preceded by a six-quarter period of falls. This quarter’s result was almost entirely due to the increase in core retail, up 1.3 percent ($138 million).

A 1.9 percent increase in motor vehicle retailing volumes was offset by decreases in the other three vehicle-related industries, leaving the overall vehicle-related sales volumes almost unchanged from the September 2009 quarter.

Fourteen of the 24 retail industries had increased volumes in the December 2009 quarter and ten had decreases.

Appliance retailing contributed the most to the overall rise in sales volumes in the December 2009 quarter, with a rise of 3.2 percent. Appliance retailing has been the largest contributor to rises in total and core (which excludes the four vehicle-related industries) sales volumes for the last three quarters.

Other contributors to the core retail increase this quarter were:

• cafes and restaurants (up 5.6 percent)
• 'other retailing' – which includes activities such as retailing antique and used goods, flowers, garden supplies, and watches and jewellery – (up 5.9 percent)
• department stores (up 3.1 percent).

The biggest decreases were:

• automotive fuel retailing (down 2.0 percent)
• other food retailing (down 10.9 percent)
• auto electrical, smash repair, and tyres (down 3.2 percent)
• furniture and floor coverings (down 3.0 percent)
• automotive repair and services not elsewhere classified (nec) (down 2.5 percent).

December 2009 quarter sales value summary

In the December 2009 quarter, the value of total retail sales rose 1.0 percent ($171 million), following increases of 0.7 percent and 1.1 percent in the September and June quarters, respectively. The value of core retail sales rose 0.6 percent ($77 million). The four vehicle-related industries had a combined sales increase of $94 million, or 2.3 percent.

Half of the 24 retail industries had increases, including ten in core retail.

The biggest increases were:

• automotive fuel retailing (up 5.7 percent or $88 million)
• cafes and restaurants (up 6.3 percent or $61 million)
• 'other retailing’ (up 6.4 percent or $45 million)
• motor vehicle retailing (up 1.7 percent or $27 million)
• department stores (up 2.8 percent or $26 million).

The biggest decreases were:

• supermarket and grocery stores (down 1.1 percent or $43 million)
• other food retailing (down 11.7 percent or $23 million)
• fresh produce retailing (down 7.3 percent or $18 million)
• automotive repair and services nec (down 2.3 percent or $12 million).

December 2009 quarter trends

Sales volume trends for both total and core retail have been rising since the June 2009 quarter, up 1.5 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. In both cases, the upward trends followed two years of decreases. While the level of the core volume trend is now back to where it was before the two-year period of decline (less than 0.1 percent higher than in the June 2007 quarter), the level of the total volume trend is still 5.5 percent lower than it was in the June 2007 quarter.

The trend in total retail sales values has been rising since the March 2009 quarter, up 2.4 percent. The trend fell 2.5 percent between the June 2008 and March 2009 quarters. The trend in core retail has been rising since the beginning of the series (in the September 1995 quarter). Until the June 2007 quarter, this trend rose at a quarterly average of 1.3 percent. However, the rate has slowed, averaging 0.5 percent since then.

Appliance retailing

Appliance retailing contributed the most to the overall rise in sales volumes in the December 2009 quarter, with a rise of 3.2 percent. Appliance retailing has been the largest contributor to rises in total and core sales volumes for the last three quarters.

Despite an increase in volumes, the value of sales was flat (down just 0.1 percent), implying a decrease in prices (after seasonal effects are removed).

The trends for both the volume and value of sales have been rising – up 12.7 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively, since the March 2009 quarter.

Cafes and restaurants

Cafes and restaurants had the second-largest increase in both sales volumes and sales values in the December 2009 quarter. The sales volume was up 5.6 percent, which was the main driver behind the 6.3 percent ($61 million) increase in sales values (with a lesser rise in prices). This increase in cafe and restaurant sales is the largest since the beginning of the series.

The sales volume trend has been rising since the December 2008 quarter, up 3.1 percent since then. This upward trend followed a four-quarter period of decline, during which the level fell 6.7 percent. The trend has strengthened in the last two quarters.

The sales value trend has been rising since the December 2008 quarter, up 6.4 percent following three quarters of falls.

Other retailing

Other retailing includes activities such as retailing antique and used goods, flowers, garden supplies, and watches and jewellery.

Other retailing was one of the main contributors to both sales volume and sales value increases, with a 5.9 percent increase in volumes driving the majority of the 6.4 percent increase in values ($45 million).

Both volume and value trends seem to have reached a turning point in the September 2009 quarter, as they have risen since then. However, initial trend estimates should be used with caution as they may be revised as more data points become available.

Automotive fuel retailing

Automotive fuel retailing volumes fell 2.0 percent, the largest fall in retail in the December 2009 quarter. This followed a fall of 0.8 percent in the September 2009 quarter and a rise of 2.6 percent in the June 2009 quarter.

The sales value rose 5.7 percent ($88 million), the largest increase in retail. This rise in value, coming despite the drop in volume, implies an increase in prices (after seasonal effects are removed).

After rising 2.0 percent between the December 2008 and June 2009 quarters, the trend in the sales volume has been falling (down 1.9 percent) since then.

The sales value trend fell 17.3 percent between the September 2008 and June 2009 quarters, at an average quarterly rate of 4.6 percent. The trend reached a turning point in June 2009, and has risen 4.3 percent since then.

Other food retailing

Other food retailing recorded the second-largest decrease in both sales volumes and values in the December 2009 quarter. Volumes were down 10.9 percent on the last quarter, and this was the main driver behind the 11.7 percent ($23 million) fall in values. Both falls were the largest recorded in other food retailing since the series began in the September 1995 quarter.

The sales volume trend has shown some strong declines in the last three years, and is now 33.0 percent down on the peak seen in December 2006. The trend is at its lowest level since the March 1997 quarter.

The sales value trend has fallen 4.8 percent since the June 2009 quarter, after rising 4.6 percent between the June 2008 and June 2009 quarters.

Supermarket and grocery stores

The volume of supermarket and grocery stores sales was flat in the December 2009 quarter, up just 0.2 percent. This industry had the largest value decrease this quarter, down 1.1 percent ($43 million). The flatness in volumes implies the drop in sales values was due to decreases in prices (after seasonal effects are removed).

The sales volume trend has risen 2.8 percent since the September 2008 quarter, following a 3.3 percent fall between the March and September 2008 quarters. The rate of increase has slowed in the latest two quarters.

For the first time in the series, the sales value trend decreased in the December 2009 quarter. However, initial trend estimates should be used with caution as they may be revised as more data points become available. The sales value trend has been rising an average of 1.5 percent per quarter since the series began in the September 1995 quarter. The rate of increase flattened in the middle of 2008, but had picked up between the December 2008 and June 2009 quarters.

Actual sales December 2009 quarter

In the December 2009 quarter compared with the December 2008 quarter:

• the volume of actual retail sales (expressed in September 1995 quarter prices) was $14.9 billion, down 0.7 percent
• the value of actual retail sales was $17.8 billion, up 1.6 percent.

Stocks

All references to stocks are in actual dollars.

The actual value of stocks held at the end of the December 2009 quarter was 2.8 percent ($161 million) lower than at the end of the December 2008 quarter. This is the fourth consecutive quarter to show a decrease in the value of stocks held compared with the same period last year.

Compared with a year earlier, 16 of the 24 retail industries showed decreases in stock values. The biggest decreases were in:

• motor vehicle retailing, down 11.2 percent ($117 million)
• liquor retailing, down 26.6 percent ($64 million)
• other retailing, down 7.6 percent ($45 million)
• department stores, down 4.7 percent ($33 million)
• furniture and floor coverings, down 10.4 percent ($20 million)
• hardware retailing, down 5.7 percent ($19 million).

The other 10 industries had decreases of $5 million or less.

Of the eight industries that held increased stock values, the biggest increases were in:

• appliance retailing, up 17.9 percent ($62 million)
• supermarket and grocery stores, up 8.0 percent ($42 million)
• clothing and softgoods retailing, up 8.9 percent ($36 million).

Regional estimates

In the December 2009 quarter, the value of seasonally adjusted retail sales in both the North Island and the South Island increased. Changes in regional sales were as follows:

• Auckland, up 1.0 percent ($54 million)
• Waikato, up 1.4 percent ($21 million)
• Wellington, up 1.0 percent ($17 million)
• Remainder of the North Island, up 2.1 percent ($77 million)
• Canterbury, sales were flat, up just 0.2 percent ($5 million)
• Remainder of the South Island, up 2.4 percent ($47 million).

Note that seasonal adjustment is run separately for each region and each industry, allowing the identification of individual variations in seasonal patterns. The total retail sales figure is calculated by adding industry data and therefore may not be the same as the sum of regional data.

Illustrated in the graph below, regional sales trends were as follows:

• Auckland – the trend has been rising (up 4.9 percent since the March 2009 quarter). The trend fell 4.2 percent in the five quarters from March 2008 to March 2009.
• Waikato – the trend has been rising (up 3.2 percent since the March 2009 quarter). The trend fell 2.7 percent over the December 2008 and March 2009 quarters.
• Wellington – the trend has been falling since the June 2008 quarter and is down 6.7 percent since then.
• Remainder of the North Island – the trend has been rising (up 2.4 percent since the June 2009 quarter). The trend fell 4.7 percent in the five quarters from June 2008 to June 2009.
• Canterbury – the trend has flattened in the latest quarter. The trend reached a turning point in the December 2008 quarter and its current level is 1.9 percent lower than then.
• Remainder of the South Island – the trend has been rising (up 4.7 percent since the March 2009 quarter), after falling 2.5 percent between the June 2008 and March 2009 quarters.

Regional contributions to total actual retail sales in the December 2009 quarter were as follows:

• Auckland, 32.9 percent
• Waikato, 9.1 percent
• Wellington, 10.4 percent
• Remainder of the North Island, 22.5 percent
• Canterbury, 12.9 percent
• Remainder of the South Island, 12.2 percent.

December 2009 month

Following increases of 0.2 percent and 0.8 percent in the October and November 2009 months respectively, seasonally adjusted total retail sales showed no overall movement in the December 2009 month compared with November 2009. This flatness is the result of an unprecedented fall of 1.8 percent ($76 million) in the core retailing industries being balanced by a 5.6 percent ($76 million) rise in the vehicle-related industries, the largest monthly gain since April 1997.

Twelve of the 20 core retailing industries recorded lower sales in the December 2009 month. The biggest falls were in:

• supermarket and grocery stores (down 2.1 percent or $27 million)
• department stores (down 4.7 percent or $15 million)
• recreational goods retailing (down 5.0 percent or $10 million)
• appliance retailing (down 3.8 percent or $9 million).

Of the eight core industries with higher sales in December 2009, the biggest increase was in accommodation, up 2.2 percent or $5 million. All the other increases were less than $5 million.

Two of the vehicle-related industries recorded big increases this month – motor vehicle retailing sales rose 7.6 percent or $41 million, while automotive fuel retailing sales rose 6.2 percent or $33 million. Automotive repair and services nec sales rose 2.0 percent or $3 million, while automotive electrical services, smash repairing, and tyre retailing fell 1.2 percent or $1 million.

The monthly trend in total retail sales has been rising since February 2009, up 2.8 percent since then. This follows a period of decline between February 2008 and February 2009, when the trend fell 3.3 percent.

The core retailing trend continues to rise, but has flattened in recent months. The core trend is being influenced by a falling trend in supermarket and grocery stores, down 1.4 percent since reaching a turning point in August 2009. This fall is the biggest in the trend for supermarket and grocery stores since the series began in May 1995. Supermarket and grocery stores account for 31 percent of core retailing sales.

The sales trends for cafes and restaurants, and for department stores – the second and third largest core retail industries (after supermarket and grocery stores) – have both been rising. The sales trend in department stores has risen 3.5 percent since June 2009, after falling 5.5 percent between September 2008 and June 2009. This rate of growth (averaging 0.6 percent per month) is the strongest since the beginning of 2007. In cafes and restaurants, the sales trend has risen 6.2 percent since July 2009. This rate of growth (averaging 1.2 percent per month) is the strongest since mid-2002.

The total actual sales value for December 2009 was $6.7 billion, 2.3 percent higher than in December 2008.

Seasonally adjusted total retail sales fell in the Wellington and Canterbury regions in the December 2009 month, and rose in the Auckland, Waikato, the Remainder of the North Island and the Remainder of the South Island regions.

Regional sales trends were as follows:

• Auckland – the sales trend has been rising since January 2009, up 5.1 percent since then, but has flattened in recent months.
• Waikato – the trend has been rising since February 2009, up 3.0 percent.
• Wellington – the trend is now flat. The sales trend fell between April 2008 and September 2009, but has since flattened.
• Remainder of the North Island – the sales trend has been rising since April 2009, up 3.1 percent.
• Canterbury – the sales trend has risen 1.4 percent since July 2009, following falls between February 2009 and July 2009.
• Remainder of the South Island – the trend is strong, rising 5.7 percent since January 2009. 

Revisions

There were no revisions in the December 2009 quarter.

Comparison statistics

For the December 2009 quarter compared with the September 2009 quarter:

• The consumers price index fell 0.2 percent.
• New Zealand Transport Agency figures, which are not seasonally adjusted, showed new registrations of cars and station wagons (including cars previously registered overseas) were up 6.0 percent.

Long-term comparisons:

• Credit card billings in New Zealand, including spending using New Zealand and overseas-issued cards, fell 0.4 percent in the month of December 2009 and rose 0.9 percent in the December 2009 quarter (each compared with the same period of the previous year).

Other:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate remained at 2.50 percent throughout the December 2009 quarter.

Measurement errors

All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors. These include both sample errors and non-sample errors. In addition, the survey applies imputation methodologies to cope with small firms and non-response. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the results from the survey. For more information on measurement errors, please refer to the 'Technical notes' section of this release.

Sample errors

The postal survey was designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):

• 2 percent for sales at the total national retail trade level
• 10 percent for sales at the published national retail industry level.

This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total retail trade sales lies within 2 percent of the published estimate.

Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries, all large firms are surveyed and all small to medium-sized firms are modelled using administrative data sourced from Inland Revenue.

 

Imputation

Small firms

Small- to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Their variables are instead modelled from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. Ratios calculated from the postal sample units are applied to the administrative data to provide an estimate of their variables.

Non-response imputation

Although every attempt is made to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. Values for non-responding businesses are estimated by a number of methods, including:

• regression imputation
• historic imputation
• mean imputation.

Regression imputation involves estimating sales from the unit's administrative data (GST sales) based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying their response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement of similar businesses over the month. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses.

 

Postal response rate

The response rate describes the proportion of geographic units that provided survey responses. Note that the calculation of this response rate relates only to data for the postal sample. The Retail Trade Survey has a target response rate of 85 percent. The response rate achieved for the December 2009 month was 90 percent.

For technical information contact: 
Yannick Monteyne or Chris Stephenson
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz

Next release ...

Retail Trade Survey: January 2010 will be released on 12 March 2010.