Food Price Index: March 2009

Commentary

Food prices in March 2009

Food prices increased 0.5 percent in March 2009, following increases of 0.2 percent in February 2009 and 0.8 percent in January 2009.

In March 2009, higher prices were recorded for the following subgroups: meat, poultry and fish (up 1.4 percent), fruit and vegetables (up 1.6 percent), non-alcoholic beverages (up 0.8 percent), and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (up 0.2 percent). Lower prices were recorded for the grocery food subgroup (down 0.2 percent).

The most significant individual upward contributions came from higher prices for lettuce (up 55.5 percent), strawberries (up 61.5 percent), plain biscuits (up 14.2 percent), and fresh chicken (up 3.2 percent).

The most significant individual downward contributions came from lower prices for apples (down 16.9 percent), potatoes (down 9.4 percent), cheddar cheese (down 6.9 percent), chocolate bars and blocks (down 5.7 percent), and yoghurt (down 5.1 percent). 

Graph, Index Points Contribution to FPI.  

Monthly Index Points Contribution 
Subgroup  January 2009 to
February 2009
February 2009 to
March 2009
Fruit and vegetables
Meat, poultry and fish
Grocery food
Non-alcoholic beverages
Restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food 
-4.23
1.67
1.19
2.01
1.31
2.58
2.79
-1.14
0.83
0.51
Food Price Index 1.95 5.58

Note: Index points contributions may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Distribution of item-level movements

The table below outlines the distribution of price movements in March 2009 and February 2009. The Food Price Index (FPI) has been partitioned into those national item-level indexes that increased, showed no change, or decreased.

Distribution of Item-level Index Movements
National item-level index movements January 2009 to
February 2009
February 2009 to
March 2009
Increase in price
Number of items
Percentage of all items
Percentage of expenditure weight
Index points contribution
Weighted average price increase (percent)
 83
52.9
61.1
17.4
2.4
84
53.5
54.2
23.0
3.6
No change in price
Number of items
Percentage of all items
Percentage of expenditure weight
2
1.3
0.8

0.6
0.1
Decrease in price
Number of items
Percentage of all items
Percentage of expenditure weight
Index points contribution
Weighted average price decrease (percent)
72
45.9
38.1
-15.5
3.5
72
45.9
45.7
-17.4
3.2 
The distribution of item-level movements shows that:
  • the percentage of expenditure weight of items that increased in price fell, while the percentage of expenditure weight of items that decreased in price rose.
  • the weighted average price increase rose significantly, while the weighted average price decrease fell slightly.
  • the weighted average price increase is now greater than the weighted average price decrease.

These movements resulted in a 0.5 percent increase in the March 2009 FPI, compared with a 0.2 percent increase in February 2009. 

Annual movements

Food prices increased 8.6 percent in the year to March 2009, following increases of 8.8 percent and 9.5 percent in the years to February and January 2009, respectively.

All five of the food subgroups increased in the year to March 2009. The most significant upward contribution came from the grocery food subgroup (up 8.4 percent), followed by the meat, poultry and fish (up 12.6 percent), fruit and vegetables (up 10.6 percent), restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (up 5.7 percent), and non-alcoholic beverages (up 5.6 percent) subgroups.

Within these subgroups, the most significant upward contributions came from higher prices for ready-to-eat food (up 5.8 percent), bread (up 13.4 percent), beef (up 15.1 percent), restaurant meals (up 5.7 percent), and cakes and biscuits (up 14.4 percent).

The most significant downward contributions came from lower prices for tomatoes (down 38.1 percent) and cheddar cheese (down 10.7 percent).

Annual Index Points Contribution 
Subgroup March 2008 to March 2009
Grocery food
Meat, poultry and fish
Fruit and vegetables
Restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food
Non-alcoholic beverages
34.96
22.91
14.66
13.39
6.36
Food Price Index  92.29

Note: Index points contributions may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Meat, poultry and fish

Prices for the meat, poultry and fish subgroup rose 1.4 percent in March 2009, following an increase of 0.8 percent in February 2009 and a decrease of 0.6 percent in January 2009.

The most significant upward contribution came from higher prices for fresh chicken (up 3.2 percent), lamb (up 5.9 percent), and beef (up 1.5 percent).

The most significant downward contribution came from ham (down 3.0 percent).

For the year to March 2009, prices for the meat, poultry and fish subgroup increased 12.6 percent; this is the largest annual increase since November 2001. The most significant upward contribution came from higher prices for beef (up 15.1 percent), fresh chicken (up 11.7 percent), and bacon (up 22.0 percent). 
Graph, Meat Poultry and Fish Subgroup Monthly change.  

 Graph, Meat Poultry and Fish Subgroup Monthly indexes.

Fruit and vegetables

Prices for the fruit and vegetables subgroup rose 1.6 percent in March 2009, following a decrease of 2.6 percent in February 2009 and an increase of 3.6 percent in January 2009.

Vegetable prices increased 1.9 percent and fruit prices increased 1.3 percent.

The most significant upward contributions came from higher prices for lettuce (up 55.5 percent) and strawberries (up 61.5 percent); prices for strawberries usually rise at this time of year.

The most significant downward contributions came from lower prices for apples (down 16.9 percent) and potatoes (down 9.4 percent).

For the year to March 2009, fruit and vegetable prices increased 10.6 percent. The most significant individual upward contributions came from higher prices for bananas (up 17.5 percent) and kiwifruit (up 26.6 percent).
Graph, Fruit and Vegetables Monthly Change.

Graph, Monthly indexes.

Grocery food

Prices for the grocery food subgroup decreased 0.2 percent in March 2009, following increases of 0.3 percent in February 2009 and 0.4 percent in January 2009. This is the first fall in grocery food prices since a 0.5 percent fall in May 2007.

The most significant downward contributions came from lower prices for chocolate bars and blocks (down 5.7 percent), cheddar cheese (down 6.9 percent), and yoghurt (down 5.1 percent).

The most significant upward contributions came from higher prices for plain biscuits (up 14.2 percent), due to a high incidence of 'specialling' in the previous two months, and muesli bars (up 9.6 percent).

For the year to March 2009, grocery food prices increased 8.4 percent. The most significant individual upward contributions came from higher prices for bread (up 13.4 percent), and cakes and biscuits (up 14.4 percent). The most significant downward contribution came from lower prices for cheddar cheese (down 10.7 percent). 
Graph, Monthly change.
Graph, Grocery Food Subgroup Monthly indexes.

Other subgroups

In March 2009, higher prices were recorded for the non-alcoholic beverages (up 0.8 percent), and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (up 0.2 percent) subgroups.

Within these subgroups, the most significant upward contributions came from higher prices for coffee (up 6.8 percent), tea (up 10.5 percent), and restaurant meals (up 0.5 percent).

The most significant downward contribution came from soft drinks (down 0.6 percent).

For the year to March 2009, prices increased 5.7 percent for the restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food subgroup, and 5.6 percent for the non-alcoholic beverages subgroup.
Graph, Selected Subgroups and FPI Monthly Indexes.

For technical information contact:
Yvonne Fakahau or Daniel Griffiths
Wellington 04 931 4600
Email: info@stats.govt.nz

Next release ...

Food Price Index: April 2009 will be released on 12 May 2009.